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Fantasy Baseball (And Football!): Buy-Low And Sell-High Hitters, Zach Wheeler And Nic Cage!
The @allinkid is shocked to see the continued lack of love for Michael Cuddyer, wonders who crashed the NBA draft, gives a few buy-low hitting options and explains why you should wait on QB while perusing the Twitterverse this week.
@ja—08: any hitters due for turnaround or dropoff?
@allinkid: good topic for my article, Master of the Twitterverse, so make sure to read Monday
Let’s start with Michael Bourn. I’ve cautioned drafters and owners over the years that Bourn is mainly a two-category guy, and that doesn’t include Average. Bourn is a career .274 hitter, and carries a .247 BABIP. So, when we see a .303 AVG, we need to think for a second. When we also see a .404 BABIP, we need to take pause. Bourn’s missed time means he will finish well short of 50-plus SB, not even a 40-SB or even likely a 30-SB season! The past five years, Bourn averaged a stolen base every 2.9 games. Currently, he is averaging one every five games… with a career-best AVG and BABIP. Even if Bourn could keep up those marks (he can’t and won’t), he will still only finish with 13 more SB for a total of 23. Sell Bourn based on his name, now, while you still can.
Jhonny Peralta won’t maintain his near-.400 BABIP, so while his overall numbers aren’t out of the norm, expect a dip in AVG.
On the buy low side, I’d still take a chance on B.J. Upton if I needed upside for the second half. While Upton has never had a first half this bad, he’s also never hit under .237, let alone under .190, and never had a BABIP under .294 (currently in the .230s). The insane 31.0 K% is killing Upton, but we all know he can go on a tear at any time. He’s still one of the few hitters with 30/30 ability, and if he gets on track, Upton could provide 10-15 HRs and SBs for the second half. Unless you’re sitting pretty, take the gamble and let him ride the bench until he gets going.
Matt Wieters is another name I’d look to snag. It’s not because I foresee a huge turnaround, but mainly because Wieters is undervalued, as owners expected much more. His BABIP sits at .239, and he’s never posted one under .274, which is why his AVG is so low (.227). That alone shows room for improvement, and yet, Wieters has still hit 10 HRs. Few catchers will crack the 20-HR threshold, and Wieters will likely do that even with no improvement.
@he—me: You would really take Cuddy over Carp in fantasy? Carp among leaders in runs and qualifies everywhere
@allinkid: 100x over! 4 other cat’s
Okay, the lack of love for Michael Cuddyer has reached new levels. Maybe you guys have been hit over the head? I don’t get it.
I have yelled his name from the mountaintops (or Twitter-tops) endlessly, as Cuddyer sits among the Top 15 hitters right now. At worst, Cuddyer is playing like a Top 25 hitter once this hit streak comes to an end (27 games through Sunday). He’s batting .344 with 14 HRs, 38 Runs, 48 RBI and six SBs. It’s very likely that Cuddyer finishes with a .320-something average, mid-20s HRs, 70 or so Runs, 80-90 RBI and 10-12 SBs. That is hard value to beat. While Matt Carpenter is also undervalued – and it’s how we got on this topic on Twitter – the only edge Carp has is Runs. Carpenter will hit around .300 and score around 80-90 Runs, but he will fight to reach double digits in home runs, won’t steal more than two or three bases and will only drive in 50-60 runs. All valuable for a player who qualifies at three positions, but that pales in comparison to Cuddyer. This just proves the lack of respect for Cuddyer, as multi-position eligibility is outweighing Cuddyer’s production.
@ja—08: offering Corbin & getting Bumgarner is that a good deal?
@allinkid: yes, sell high buy low – good move
Seeing as how we’re talking about a Top 15 starter in Madison Bumgarner and a Top 30 in Patrick Corbin, this is actually a great move. Corbin’s expected regression was a bit overblown by most, but he’s still not as good as his first nine starts. As for Bumgarner, he’s much better than those five starts mixed in from May 6 to June 8, in whicha he allowed 26 Runs in 28.1 IP. Bumgarner is a low-.300 ERA pitcher with 190-200 K ability. At his best, Corbin will finish with a similar ERA but 20-30 less strikeouts. That is where the difference comes in, and to finish with a similar ERA, Corbin will have a lesser second half than Bumgarner.
@tx—ne: why does it seem this year that in FF QBs aren’t going as fast as they have in past years. Seems like RB’s and WR’s going before
@allinkid: because people have smartened up to the value in waiting on QB. Just creates a better success rate
I know there are still some out there that haven’t heard or read it from me, so I’ll beat the dead horse again, just for the benefit of everyone reading… cause I love you all.
Tony Romo, yes that Tony Romo, is one of just five QBs to finish in the Top 10 for QBs in five of the last six years (Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the others). That’s how unpredictable the position is, and when you add in the fact that someone like Romo is around in the seventh or eighth round, there is no need to draft a QB early. Romo, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson – and I could go on – are all available after you are able to draft at least two RBs, two WRs and a fifth player of your choosing. Be smart, wait on your QB.
@tr—er: Got offered McCutchen and Parra for J Upton and Hamilton in 5×5 am I crazy to be considering?
@allinkid: no not crazy but selling extremely low. I don’t have a problem if you need help now
When I say “now,” I only mean if you need to make some big moves and are near the bottom. Otherwise, just like last week where I explained when you should make deals like this, you have to be patient. Justin Upton has cooled significantly since April, but selling him now is almost crazy, unless you’re desperate. As for Josh Hamilton, few players have disappointed more, but few have his potential at a similar value. To compare Hamilton to Gerardo Parra – which is what you’re basically doing in this trade – is to sell Hamilton short. That said, he could disappoint all year, and that is why if you can’t wait it out, I’d be okay with the deal but not thrilled. Andrew McCutchenoffsets Upton, but Parra is exactly what we see: a .280-.290 hitter with 10-12 HR power and likely 10-12 SB. That doesn’t come close to what Hamilton can do if he gets on track.
@allinkid: you missed the best part! The dude to his right stole my outfit! http://twitpic.com/czjqfm
@ch—_G: @allinkid Hah, yeah, I saw that later. Who is he supposed to be?
Seriously people, if any of you know what that guy was supposed to be dressed as, please tell me. Was he from Daft Punk in Tron? I don’t know, but it’s irking me not knowing. Still, how awesome is that afro?
@j_—13: Drop Zach Wheeler for Jacob Turner?
@da—82: After tonight’s start is Jacob Turner a must own in a 12 team head 2 head mixed league?
I actually saw more questions than this on Jacob Turner after his game against the Padres. For the Zach Wheelerportion, everyone knows by now that I cautioned owners not to think that Wheeler would have the impact that Matt Harvey had. That fact was more prevalent than ever with his five-run outing against Washington on Sunday. Wheeler lasted just 4.2 innings and gave up two home runs on six hits. There is still upside with Wheeler long term, but Turner is pitching better and has been long enough for us to take him seriously. Turner has a 1.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start – four with one run or less. Now, Turner’s xFIP sits at 3.86 and is indicative of the type of pitcher Turner truly is. With a high LOB% (82.6), low K/9 of 5.9 and low BABIP of .264, there is regression coming. Will it be devastating? No. Turner has quality control, shown in his 2.6 BB/9 and 60.9 F-Strike%. Turner doesn’t have Wheeler’s long term potential, but for this season, he has proven to be the more valuable pitcher. Wheeler simply needs too much control improvement before his true worth can be reached.
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