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Gamblin'

Who’s Gonna Win Spurs-Heat Game 7? Let’s Bet On It.


Welcome to SportsGrid’s daily feature, where we tell you what sports are on TV tonight and how, where and when to watch them. Then, I do my best to help you win some money while watching. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing, and gambling is legal in your jurisdiction. Feel free to tweet hateful things at me if my advice moves you to do so. TV games are often the toughest games to find an edge on, so don’t go crazy, people. If I do recommend a bet, I’ll keep track of it, so you can tell me how awful (or wonderful?) I am. For record-keeping, we’ll assume a standard bet is $10. Occasionally, there will be 2x or 3x bets, maybe 4 or 5 if I’m feeling spunky. Good luck, America!

The Heat escaped with a Game 6 win, somehow. So did we. Let’s finish off our undefeated season (in NBA Finals Game 7s involving the Heat and Spurs).

Important note: Money you make in the playoffs isn’t worth more than money you make in the regular season. Stay disciplined.

NBA Finals, Game 6: Spurs at Heat (-6.5) (9:00 p.m., ABC)

Game 1: close, but Spurs dominate late. Just four Spurs turnovers. Unsustainable. Game 2: close, Heat DOMINATE late (The Block, etc.). Duncan, Parker, awful. Unsustainable. Game 3, Spurs go nuts. Game 4, Heat go nuts, but less so. Game 5, Spurs win fairly easily. Game 6… you know. Spurs were the better team, inexplicably lost. It was weird. Every game has been weird.

So, what the hell is gonna happen tonight?

First, the obvious stats, all via Who Wins. Home teams are 90-23 (.797) in NBA playoff Game 7s. Home teams are 14-3 (.824) in NBA Finals games. They’ve won five straight.

It’s very tough to think the Spurs will win tonight. When LeBron decided to get aggressive, he was unstoppable. Then again, it took him over three quarters to get that way, in an elimination game. Why should Game 7 be different?

There’s talk of the Spurs not being able to recover from a heartbreaking loss. But they’re the Spurs. They have Gregg Popovich. They have fine wine. I may be wrong, but I really, really don’t buy the fact that they “can’t recover.” This, from yesterday, makes me agree with myself.

Boom. That’s nice. If the Heat win, I think it will be because they were better, not because the Spurs were bad. I would be surprised if tonight wasn’t a very good game.

I think there is a slight edge to the Spurs here. The spread is -6 (though it might be at 5.5 by the time you read this, because the money is coming in on the Spurs). That means oddsmakers think the Heat are the better team (or they are putting a ridiculous price on home-court in Game 7). If you’ve watched this series, you’d be hard-pressed to think that the Heat are better. I think the Spurs have been the better team, so even though I’m not confident they’ll win, I’ll gladly take the points.

Also, I’d monitor the live betting numbers if you’re near internet and not too drunk to empty your bank account, because NBA live betting can be awesome.

Spurs +6, $20 to win $18.18 AND Spurs ML (+244), $5 to win $12.20

Record in games actually worth risking money on: 183-125 (+$260.53)

Good luck!

Lines taken from 5dimes.eu (with reduced juice) and betonline.ag

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