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Gamblin'

Let’s Make Some Money Betting On Heat-Spurs Game 4 Tonight!


Welcome to SportsGrid’s daily feature, where we tell you what sports are on TV tonight and how, where and when to watch them. Then, I do my best to help you win some money while watching. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing, and gambling is legal in your jurisdiction. Feel free to tweet hateful things at me if my advice moves you to do so. TV games are often the toughest games to find an edge on, so don’t go crazy, people. If I do recommend a bet, I’ll keep track of it, so you can tell me how awful (or wonderful?) I am. For record-keeping, we’ll assume a standard bet is $10. Occasionally, there will be 2x or 3x bets, maybe 4 or 5 if I’m feeling spunky. Good luck, America!

BREAKING: We won a bet. Ding dong, the streak of losing lots of money in lots of consecutive days, is dead. Let’s make money.

Important note: Money you make in the playoffs isn’t worth more than money you make in the regular season. Stay disciplined.

NBA Finals, Game 3: Heat at Spurs (-2.5) (9:00 p.m., ABC)

Game 1: close, but the Spurs dominated late. Game 2: close, until the Heat DOMINATED late (The Block, etc.). In Game 1, the Spurs turned the ball over just four times. In Game 2, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan were very bad. Game 3, the Spurs were historically good. Each game has been an outlier. Will we get a normal game?

Well, there’s weird stuff surrounding this game. The line opened at San Antonio -2. Now, it’s Miami -1, a decent-sized swing. The reasons are simple — people expect a bounce-back, desperation game for the Heat, and they’re worried about Tony Parker’s hamstring, though he should play. And when you add in the refs (the Heat are 9-1 in their last 10 games refereed by Scott Foster! which doesn’t mean much, but still, he’s widely known as an awful/sketchy official), and the not-so-ridiculous “NBA is rigged” angle. David Stern wants the Heat to tie this series up. It’s not ridiculous to think the refs will favor the Heat.

Everything points towards the Heat.

…except for the fact that the Spurs look incredible and just beat them by 36 points. I do think there’s reason to bet on the Heat, but tread carefully.

Heat -1 (-103), $20 to win $19.42

Record in games actually worth risking money on: 181-124 (+$261.11)

Good luck!

Lines taken from 5dimes.eu (with reduced juice) and betonline.ag

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