What’s On TV Tonight, And How Not To Lose Your Money Gamblin’ On The NBA And NHL Playoffs
Welcome to SportsGrid’s new, daily feature, where we tell you what sports are on TV tonight. Then, I do my best to help you win some money while watching. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing, and gambling is legal in your jurisdiction. Feel free to tweet hateful things at me if my advice moves you to do so. TV games are often the toughest games to find an edge on, so don’t go crazy, people. If I do recommend a bet, I’ll keep track of it, so you can tell me how awful (or wonderful?) I am. For record-keeping, we’ll assume a standard bet is $10. Occasionally, there will be 2x or 3x bets, maybe 4 or 5 if I’m feeling spunky. Good luck, America!
Important note: Money you make in the playoffs isn’t worth more than money you make in the regular season. Stay disciplined.
So, we made over $100 on Friday. That was nice. It would have been especially nice if our crazy 20/1 parlay won instead of the stupid Bruins scoring a late goal and reducing it to a mere 4/1 or so parlay. Stupid Bruins.
NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs (+162) at Bruins (-170) (7:00 p.m., CNBC)
I actually have a ticket on the Maple Leafs +340, so my only play here would be to hedge, which I don’t think I’m doing. But I didn’t tell you about that bet, because I’m an asshole. Sorry.
The last Bruins line at home was -205. That was inflated and dumb, so we bet on the Leafs. It worked. The other, non-ridiculous line in Boston was -175. That was fair. There has been a bit of Toronto action, which explains the five-cent decrease. The reason?
Tor at Bos, game 7 Monday. Bruins plane stuck in Canada tonight. B’s can’t return till Mon. So Tor sleeps in Bos tonight, Bos in Tor.
— Peter King (@SI_PeterKing) May 13, 2013
I liked the Leafs before that news, though I was hoping for a better price than +162. James Reimer has reached a new level, and I do lean to the Leafs. But I’d rather take the -1 at a nice price. Far from a sure thing, but nice value.
Maple Leafs -1 (+320), $10 to win $32
NHL Playoffs: Rangers (+115) at Capitals (-122) (8:00 p.m., NBCSN)
This series has gone as expected. The Rangers have struggled to score, but were slightly better at home. The Capitals have been the better team. But Henrik Lundvist is godlike, and he can steal any game, as he did in Game 6. The story is the same as it’s been: the Capitals should be slightly heavier favorites than this, at home. If Lundqvist is less than perfect, the Caps should win. But there’s probably a 35% chance of him being perfect. And, as always, you have to love the under. Why this isn’t 4.5, I’ll never understand.
Capitals ML (-122), $10 to win $8.20 AND UNDER 5 (-130), $25 to win $20.83
NBA Playoffs: Heat (-8) at Bulls (7:00 p.m., TNT)
You get the feeling that, if anything, the Bulls are playing over their heads by avoiding complete embarrassment in every game. But you also get the feeling that if there’s another game that’s close this series, it’s this one, the potential last game at the United Center. I see no need to take the Heat -8. If you are itching for action, parlay the moneyline with whomever you like in the late game. I don’t normally recommend action for the sake of action, but I know we are both itching and sometimes you just gotta scratch that itch.
Pass, for like a paragraph, chill out
NBA Playoffs: Thunder at Grizzlies (-4.5) (9:30 p.m., TNT)
Memphis worries me a bit, but I liked them at the beginning of the series and we’re sitting on a juicy +150 series price. Or maybe it’s +140. I forget; I’ll look it up later. Truthfully, you should probably just sit on that and root for them tonight. But like I said, we both are itching. Keep the scratch small, though.
Parlay: Heat ML/Grizzlies ML, $10 to win $9.28
For s**** and gigs, another small, longshot parlay:
Maple Leafs -1/Capitals ML/Capitals UNDER, $5 to win $59.68
Record in games actually worth risking money on: 168-109 (+$375.52)
What else is on:
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
7 p.m. | ESPN
New York Mets at St. Louis
Lines taken from 5dimes.eu (with reduced juice) and betonline.ag