What’s On TV Tonight, And How Not To Lose Your Money Gamblin’
Welcome to SportsGrid’s new, daily feature, where we tell you what sports are on TV tonight. Then, I do my best to help you win some money while watching. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing, and gambling is legal in your jurisdiction. Feel free to tweet hateful things at me if my advice moves you to do so. TV games are often the toughest games to find an edge on, so don’t go crazy, people. If I do recommend a bet, I’ll keep track of it, so you can tell me how awful (or wonderful?) I am. For record-keeping, we’ll assume a standard bet is $10. Occasionally, there will be 2x or 3x bets, maybe 4 or 5 if I’m feeling spunky. Good luck, America!
College Basketball: Georgetown (-1.5) at Connecticut (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Both teams are hot, but Georgetown is getting more hype following their nine straight wins. They’re coming off an impressive road win at Syracuse. Always be cautious with a hyped-up team coming off a massive win — Georgetown’s stock is at a season-high. The Hoyas are 12-2 ATS(!) in Big East play, because they’ve surpassed expectations. But you missed the time to bet them, unless you think this middling offense will continue to improve and Georgetown is truly a national-title contender.
I don’t see a reason to jump in front of Georgetown’s hot streak against a mediocre team like UConn, but I think oddsmakers have adjusted to their recent play. No value here.
PASS, YOU CRAZY DEGENERATE
NBA: Warriors at Knicks (-7) (8:00 p.m., ESPN)
The Warriors were a surprise team until recently. Now people know they’re decent, and the market has responded. They aren’t as good as their record (they actually have a negative point differential), and are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. Their stock is down again.
But the Knicks have had the same exact trajectory this season. They impressed early on, it proved to be somewhat flukey, and now they haven’t covered once in their past eight games.
I’m not sure you can trust either team here. But even though both teams have struggled, they haven’t struggled to score, and this matchup screams points. A total of 205 seems low. Golden State’s defense is significantly worse on the road, and 21 of their 32 road games have gone over the total. I like the over a bit, here. David Lee is out due to suspension, but with undersized Carl Landry and Draymond Green behind him, that may just mean more points.
But I refuse to make large bets on the NBA unless LeBron is a 50-point underdog, or something like that.
OVER 205, $5 to win $4.55
NHL: Capitals (+129) at Flyers (-131) (7:30 p.m., NBCSN)
The Capitals were awful to begin the year, mainly because of their defense and piss-poor goaltending from Braden Holtby. Holtby has actually become good, out of nowhere, and the defense has stepped up. Washington no longer sucks.
The Flyers’ problem has typically been goaltenting, too, but Ilya Bryzgalov has been good. Their problem has actually been offense, which is strange.
These are two similar teams, struggling despite a lot of talent, but showing some promise recently. Both teams are good on the power play (though Washington is really good). Both teams are bad on the penalty kill.
But a +129 line means Washington has a 43.7% implied probability of winning. When you factor in the slight home-ice advantage, this line makes sense. The Caps were tempting at the opening price of +143, but most of the value is gone now.
Pass, lean Capitals
NHL: Red Wings (+136) at Kings (-146) (10:00 p.m., NBCSN)
This is LA’s backup goalie (Jonathan Bernier) vs. Detroit’s starter. But Bernier has been as good as any starter in the league this year, albeit in limited action. That’s not a worry.
Both teams were overhyped to start the year, and both have struggled.
If you think the Kings have turned things around, they might be the play. They’re as good as anyone when at their best, and Detroit is a different team on the road. LA has won six of seven. I don’t think the Kings have turned things around, per se, but I don’t like Detroit this year, and I never like them on the road.
This price is probably fair for both teams’ performances thus far, but I just think the situation favors the home team.
Kings ML (-146), $10 to win $6.80
TV: My Strange Addiction (10:00 p.m., TLC)
“The Lamb; Eats Deodorant”
A man pleads with his 19-year-old girlfriend to kick her two-year habit of eating more than a dozen sticks of deodorant per month; a 27-year-old woman can’t live without a stuffed animal.
Parlay: 19-year old girl eats UNDER 9.5 sticks of deoderant in March AND 27-year old woman DIES when separated from her stuffed animal (+1100), $10 to win $1,100
NHL: Canadiens ML (-110), $20 to win $18.18
Ducks ML (-121), $10 to win $8.26
Record in games actually worth risking money on: 48-37 (+$99.87)
What else is on: College Basketball: Oklahoma at Texas (9:00 p.m., ESPN), NBA: Nuggets at Trail Blazers (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Lines taken from 5dimes.eu (with reduced juice) and betonline.ag