Master Of The Twitterverse: Fantasy Baseball Advice As Opening Day Kicks Off
@ed—-08: would u drop any of these for Lohse? Samardzija, Kuroda, Minor or Morrow?
@allinkid: nope – he doesn’t bring the Ks and all of those I rank higher…Minor & Morrow lowest – really don’t Morrow to be 2012-like again
What’s more is that Kyle Lohse also went 16-3 last year, a record that he won’t repeat. Mike Minor is the top consideration, but you can expect 30-40 more Ks on the season. As for Brandon Morrow, strikeouts are the allure in drafting him, but I am staying away. I have him just outside the Top 30, and that precludes me from ever having him fall to my valuation. The reason for my lower ranking than most is that Morrow had the fifth lowest Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) against in 2012 of .252. Not only is that going to rise in 2013, but it was also 39 points under Morrow’s career average. I don’t expect Morrow to near a sub-3.00 ERA, and in fact, his Predictive ERA (xFIP) last season was 4.03. While 200 strikeouts are appealing, I see Morrow checking in with a mediocre ERA.
@ch——42: with #BrettLawrie going on dl, who do you like better as a fill in at third? #PedroAlvarez or #LonnieChisenhall?
@allinkid: Alvarez the better fill in – he has power, if you can afford BA hit…how is he available & why hash-tagging NAMES?
Lonnie Chisenhall was touted as the Indians third baseman of the future, but he hasn’t looked the part yet. Chisenhall’s main issue is facing left-handed pitching: a .184/.205/.237 triple slash proves that. Pedro Alvarez won’t top Chisenhall in average – even coming in 15-20 points behind – but he has significantly more power. Like Chisenhall, Alvarez saw plenty of hype when he first broke into the league. However, we have now seen Alvarez flash his ability with 30 HRs last season. If nothing else, that alone gives him the edge. Although, I’m still a bit surprised Alvarez is available.
@un——-23: You’re up in the PPR Mock
@allinkid: Thanks for the heads up!
The Fantasy Football season never ends… this is only about the 27th mock draft I’ve done in the past two months!
@Bl—–e_: Hitting the waiver wire in my 10 team mixed H2H league. Who do you like most Josh Beckett, Rick Porcello or Alex Cobb?
@allinkid: Cobb over Beckett and def Porcello. We know what Beckett is but Cobb has more upside. Porcello (one of these things not like others) way 3rd
Did Rick Porcello slip you a Benjamin to get mentioned here? Or wait; tell me you’re not buying into his spring. We’ve been teased time and again by Porcello only to see him post an ERA/WHIP of 4.59/1.39 or worse the past three years. He hasn’t even topped 5.5 K/9 yet. Seriously… what did he give you? As for Josh Beckett versus Alex Cobb, I do like Beckett more than last season, as he saw dramatic improvement in LA. If you want upside though, it’s clearly Cobb. Beckett has 17 Ks in 17.1 Spring Training IP, but Cobb has 28 in 25.2 IP and a much better ERA. Yes, it’s spring, but Cobb locked himself into the Rays rotation and a place in my fantasy heart.
@Ta—–27: any advice for someone doing an NL only league for the first time?
@allinkid: a mono league bucks the rule of “don’t pay for saves” – that’s the biggest difference. Also try to get one top-end SP
The old adage is “don’t pay for saves,” and I follow that rule religiously and even take to the level of not paying for pitching, period. I’m sure Tim Lincecum’s 2012 owners would agree. However, things change when you start talking mono leagues. Unless it’s an eight-team league or smaller, saves/closers and elite-level starters become premiums. If you don’t pony up some serious draft dollars or move them up a couple of rounds in snake drafts, you are hurting your team from the start.
@un——-23: You’re turn in the PPR Mock
@allinkid: Okay, thanks, got it
I’m getting to it! It’s tough to ready for baseball while still working on speculation in football drafts. Give me a minute, okay!
@RE—–OV: Slim pickins: Joe Blanton or Porcello? AL only: W/SV/Ks/BBs And who’s your leader to close in DET?
@allinkid: Blanton over Porcello…Blanton doesnt get enough credit for being solid. DET closer, Benoit, but want none. Expect 3 w/ 10 saves
Yes, I know this is the second time we’re talking about Porcello, but apparently, too many of you buy into spring stats. “But Joe Blanton has a 4.79 ERA the last three years!” you say. Sure, but notice there is no ERA category listed. Blanton is with the Angels now, which gives him as much chance, if not more, than Porcello to win games. Add in a better K/9 and BB/9 than Porcello and you have all of the reasons to take Blanton.
As for the Tigers closer situation, I’m avoiding it unless I have a “wasted/flier” spot on my team. Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Octavio Dotel and Al Alburquerque could all see opportunities. Don’t think just because Coke had the job in the playoffs that he will again. Righties hammer Coke, which isn’t what you want in a closer. Al “Squared” has the best stuff but doesn’t have the experience of the rest. As I said, don’t be surprised to see three pitchers with 10 saves come season’s end.
@Te—-rp: Bro, need some help in tight FBB playoffs. I can start 2 of these big men, Drummond, R Lopez, K Mart or T Thompson. DD are a stat
@allinkid: if Drum could get consistent time, him, but since not, TT & Lopez. Martin depends too much on TC not playing
Basketball questions too? What do you guys think my job is? Be here for all of your Fantasy needs? Oh… right… well, good luck in the playoffs!
@Vj—na: would u try to trade B.J. Upton for Jay Bruce?
@allinkid: yes. But bc easier to find speed. But if need speed, don’t
We all know B.J. Upton is one of the few players with 30/30 ability, but the closest he’s come was last season with 28/31. The problem with Upton is he strikes out a bunch and hurts you in average (career .255). Meanwhile, Jay Bruce is still improving and could reach 40 HRs in his sixth season. Some will argue that both have AVG issues, so Upton is the better choice with stolen bases. I beg to differ, as Bruce will produce more Runs and RBI and even chips in a few SB too. Plus, the projected 2013 midseason call-ups are more likely to provide stolen bases than home runs. Get Bruce.
@un——-23: You’re up in both the PPR and Standard mock drafts
@allinkid: Will get them shortly
Good grief… Fine, I’m headed there now! Thank goodness I know barely anything about Fantasy Hockey!
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