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The Busch Brothers Are Strong Fantasy Plays At Bristol

kyle buschADAM ANSELL’S TOP 25 FOR BRISTOL

1. Kyle Busch: Busch finished in 31st-place last week at Michigan International Speedway. In 17 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, Busch has five wins (2007, 2009 sweep, 2010-11), eight Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 9.8. Busch started from the pole, led 56 laps and finished second in the March race. In his two previous wins, he led 283 (2010) and 153 laps (2011). Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Busch leads all competitors in Driver Rating (103.0), Laps Led (1,431) and Fastest Laps Run (581). He ranks sixth in Average Running Position (12.7). Aside from last weekend’s blip, Busch has been hot of late (one win, two Top 5s, four Top 10s in his last four Cup starts prior to MIS). He’s very strong at Bristol and is the top play in all formats.

2. Kurt Busch: Busch started second and finished third with 43 Laps Led at MIS. In 25 starts at BMS, Busch has five wins (2002, 2003 sweep, 2004, 2006), seven Top 5s, 14 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 13.4. He finished fourth and led a single lap in the Spring race. Busch ranks seventh in DR (92.8) and in ARP (13.2). He’s finished third in two of his last three Cup starts and is inching towards his first win of the season. He’s a must-start across the board, especially in Salary Cap formats.

3. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski finished 12th at MIS, leading 17 laps and posting an ARP of 5.3. In seven Bristol starts, Keselowski has two wins (2011-12) and three Top 5s with an Average Finish of 12.1. He finished third and led 62 laps back in March. He’s led at least 62 laps in three of his last four starts.  Keselowski ranks fourth in DR (99.0) and fifth in ARP (12.6). Like Kurt Busch, he’s overdue for a win. Fantasy owners looking for value would be wise to use The Blue Deuce in Tiered/Grouping formats.

4. Kasey Kahne: Kahne finished seventh a week ago at Michigan. In 19 starts at BMS, Kahne has one win (2013), four Top 5s, eight Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 18.2. Kahne won the March event. He started second on the grid and led 109 laps. He’s led at least 42 laps in each of his last two starts. Kahne ranks 11th in DR (86.8) and 20th in ARP (17.6). He posted an incredible 2.4 in his March win at Bristol and will come at a solid value in most formats.

5. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth finished 15th at Michigan, failing to post a Top 10 for the third-straight race. In 27 starts at Bristol, Kenseth has two wins (2005, 2006), 10 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 12.9. Despite leading 85 laps in the Spring event, Kenseth posted a 35th-place DNF. He’s led at least 25 laps in each of his last four starts. Kenseth ranks third in DR (99.9) and second in ARP (10.8) and Laps Led (971). He’s had some bad luck in his last two runs at Bristol but will get back on track this weekend.

6. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson blew an engine early and finished a season-worst 40th at Michigan. In 23 BMS starts, Johnson has one win (2010), seven Top 5s, 13 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 14.3. He finished a quiet 22nd in the March race. He’s led at least 52 laps in seven of his last nine starts. Johnson ranks sixth in DR (93.8) and fourth in ARP (12.5). Considering Bristol is not one of his best tracks, there’s two ways to look at this. One, save the Tiered/Grouping start for another day. Two, take advantage of the fact most Fantasy owners will be going with option one and roll Johnson for the value. Both perspectives make sense.

7. Carl Edwards: Edwards finished a solid 10th at MIS. In 18 starts at Bristol, Edwards has two wins (2007, 2008), four Top 5s, seven Top 10s and two poles with an Average Finish of 14.6. He finished 18th in the March event. He led 45 laps in the August 2012 race at the site. Edwards ranks 13th in DR (86.5) and 12th in ARP (15.4). He’s been fairly consistent as of late, posting five consecutive Top 15s. He’s a safe start in all formats with decent upside.

8. Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished second at MIS, his first Top 5 in over a month. In 25 starts at BMS, Harvick has one win (2005), nine Top 5s and 12 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 12.6. He posted his third-straight Top 15 at the site, finishing 14th back in March. He led 37 laps in the March 2011 race. Harvick ranks ninth in DR (90.3) and eighth in ARP (13.6). Fantasy owners looking for a solid finish with little risk attached should heavily consider the No. 29.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior posted a 36th-place finish at Michigan, his second-straight finish of 30th-or-worse. In 27 BMS appearances, Earnhardt Jr. has one win (2004), seven Top 5s and 13 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 11.6. He finished sixth in the March event. He’s led at least two laps in two of his last three starts. Earnhardt Jr. ranks 10th in DR (87.9) and ninth in ARP (14.0). He leads all drivers in Green Flag Passes (954). He’ll get back on track at Bristol where Fantasy owners can expect a solid, but unspectacular performance.

10. Greg Biffle: Biffle finished ninth at Michigan with 28 Laps Led. In 21 starts at Bristol, Biffle has six Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 12.1. He posted an 11th-place finish back in March. He’s led 41 laps in two of his last three starts. Biffle ranks fifth in DR (95.8) and third in ARP (12.4). He’s worth a look for all provisional Tiered/Grouping format lineups.

11. Brian Vickers: Two Top 5s and three Top 10s with an Average Finish of 21.2 in 17 starts at Bristol. 67.0 DR.

12. Clint Bowyer: Five Top 5s and eight Top 10s with an Average Finish of 16.2 in 17 BMS starts. 82.6 DR.

13. Jeff Gordon: Five wins (1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2002), 16 Top 5s, 22 Top 10s and five poles with an Average Finish of 12.4 in 41 starts at BMS. 100.6 DR.

14. Joey Logano: One Top 10 and one pole with an Average Finish of 21.6 in nine appearances at Bristol. 75.1 DR.

15. Martin Truex Jr.: Two Top 5s with an Average Finish of 18.3 in 15 starts at BMS. 82.4 DR.

16. Mark Martin: 86.0 DR.

17. Ryan Newman: 86.7.

18. Paul Menard: 71.4.

19. Denny Hamlin: 90.8.

20. Marcos Ambrose: 80.0.

21. Jeff Burton

22. Aric Almirola

23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

24. Jamie McMurray

25. Juan Pablo Montoya

Value Village

1. Brian Vickers: Finished eighth in the March race. He has two Top 5s and three Top 10s with an Average Finish of 5.7 and a DR of 100.5 in his last three BMS starts. He’s the ultimate value play in Tiered/Grouping formats.

2. Ryan Truex: Will helm the No. 51 Phoenix Racing ride. Posted a 10th-place finish in the March 2012 Nationwide race at Bristol. He’s a gamble that could pay off this weekend.

2013 NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Lineup for Bristol (Salary Cap)

Kyle Busch                    $ 28.25
Jimmie Johnson         $ 27.75
Kurt Busch                    $19.75
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.  $13.25
Ryan Truex                   $ 5.00

Total: $94.00

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