Luckily, a Redditor by the name of “Duneblogger” has the wherewithal to understand the current collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and the Player’s Association, and has devised a why to project the league’s basketball related income from 2015-2017. Why is this important?
Because the dramatic increase in cap space ($20 million over the next three seasons) will lead to tension between the owners and the players when the current CBA potentially ends in 2017. Also, higher revenues from more lucrative TV deals will inevitably make the players work toward an increased percentage of said revenue (the current CBA entitles players to 7% less of the BRI than the previous agreements from 1999 and 2005).
Here are the numbers if you’re interested in seeing what the league will look like from a financial standpoint in the near future.
Year Projected BRI Max Salary Salary Cap Derived Cap Derived Max 2012-13 $4,308,000,000 $19,136,250 $58,000,000 $56,246,640 $18,394,642 2013-14 $4,481,000,000 $19,181,750 $58,679,000 $58,826,647 $19,245,773 2014-15 $4,763,000,000 $20,644,400 $63,065,000 $63,032,207 $20,633,166
Projected BRI (Basketball Related Income)- 2012-13 and 2013-14 come from the CBA FAQ from Larry Coon. The 2014-15 number is derived from using a straight-line increase of general basketball revenue between 2012-14 (5.33%). 2013-14 underestimated the BRI, so the straight line was extended using 2012-13 as the baseline.
Max Salary – All years are from the CBA FAQ
Derived Cap – This was calculated using the equation: ((BRI * 44.74%) – Benefits)/ # of Teams. The large discrepency between the 2012-13 derived and actual salary cap can be explained by the CBA FAQ:
In 2012-13 the salary cap was guaranteed to be at least $58.044 million if the calculation produced a lower amount. This prevented a drop in the salary cap as a result of a drop in revenues due to the 2011 lockout.
Derived Max – This was calculated using the equation: ((BRI * 42.17%) – Benefits)*35%/ # of Teams.
Estimated Salary Cap and Max Contracts
The estimation considers two variables:
1. A continued 5.33% growth of non-TV contract related basketball revenue YTY (year to year).
2. 2016-17 should start a relatively large increase in television revenue. The “Low” estimate takes the existing $930M in TV revenues and continues them. The “High” estimate is the largest that I’ve found speculated around the interwebs. “Med” is my personal guess.
Year Projected BRI Max Salary Salary Cap Derived Cap Derived Max 2012-13 $4,308,000,000 $19,136,250 $58,000,000 $56,246,640 $18,394,642 2013-14 $4,481,000,000 $19,181,750 $58,679,000 $58,826,647 $19,245,773 2014-15 $4,763,000,000 $20,644,400 $63,065,000 $63,032,207 $20,633,166 2015-16 (est) $5,016,867,900 $66,818,223 $21,882,154 2016-17 (TV:Low) $5,284,266,959 $70,806,035 $23,197,713 2016-17 (TV:Med) $6,154,266,959 $83,780,635 $27,477,968 2016-17 (TV:High) $6,454,266,959 $88,254,635 $28,953,918
Does this mean a lockout is on the horizon? Let us know what you think…