FNTSY FIGHTNETWORK ROTOEXPERTS

4 NFL Players Whose ADP Has Shifted For Better Or Worse

  • RotoExperts.com

arian foster
Questions about durability have diminished Arian Foster’s Fantasy value. Photo Credit: A.J Guel

By Ian Riley, RotoExperts Staff Writer

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Average Draft Position (ADP) is exactly what it says: the average position that a player is drafted in both mock and actual Fantasy Football league drafts for the site where you are reading the data. When drafting, it is a heavily used tool because it assists in forecasting who may still be available for you the next time you select a player.

By no means is it an exact science, as every draft has a different set of minds, but it at least gives a basis for what you can expect. What you can count on is the fact that every ADP list is different. Draft software employs the rankings of the website hosting the draft, and inherently, the players at the top of that particular site’s rankings can sway many users.

The guys over at FantasyPros.com offer a fantastic ADP Tool that grabs data from multiple sites and provides a consensus ranking. Now that the calendar has switched over to August, we are getting knee deep into draft season. From this point on we should see plenty of ADP ups-and-downs that we will chronicle here over the coming weeks.

Risers

Rashad Jennings, RB, NYG
ADP Source Yahoo ESPN CBS FFC NFL AVG
7/21/14 63 61 56 44 45 53.8
8/18/14 55 58 55 36 43 49.4
+/- -7 -3 -1 -8 -2 -4.4
You aren’t going to find many 29-year-old running backs with only 484 career touches under their belt. The Giants went out and got their hands on one, though, and barring something completely unforeseen, Jennings is going to be in line to eclipse at least 50 percent of his career total. David Wilson‘s retirement locked up the early down work for Jennings. Rookie Andre Williams is the only back on this roster capable of supplanting Jennings, but his lack of passing game chops have him ticketed for a short yardage and clock grinding role to start the year. Outside of four matchups with the NFC West this season, the Giants don’t have an awful schedule against the run. Expect Jennings and his ADP to continue rising as a running back option locked into 15-plus touches a game to start the season.

Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
ADP Source Yahoo ESPN CBS FFC NFL AVG
7/21/14 106 164 114 115 140 127.8
8/18/14 115 141 100 107 139 120.4
+/- +9 -23 -14 -8 -1 -7.4
The writing was on the wall during OTAs when Coach Chip Kelly worked in plenty of two tight end sets in an effort to get Ertz on the field. With his increased playing time, there have been plenty of raves from the media, coaches and even members of other teams on just how good Ertz has been in camp. The latest kudos came from quarterback Nick Foles, who went as far as to compare him to Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. Had Foles not played with Gronk I would have just brushed this one off. To me, that says Foles expects big things from his tight end and that he feels he is more than capable of dealing with the pressure that comes with that comparison. For those of you out there that hold off at the position, there isn’t a better low end TE1 out there.

Fallers

Arian Foster, RB, HOU
Source Yahoo ESPN CBS FFC NFL AVG
7/21/14 18 12 11 13 7 12.2
8/18/14 15 11 20 21 9 15.2
+/- -3 -1 +9 +8 +2 +3
The Texans started training camp 25 days ago. Foster has been on the field and practicing for just 12 of those days. Hamstring woes have bothered him since very early on in camp. Couple that with the fact that he is coming off season ending back surgery in 2013 and we have enough doubt created for Fantasy Football owners. Foster has the ability to absolutely thrive in Coach Bill O’Brien’s offense. But, have three straight seasons of 330 plus touches prior to last season sapped his ability to remain healthy? Stranger things have happened. There probably isn’t a bigger boom-or-bust selection early in drafts this year. His current ADP feels right, but ultimately I can see him moving back up a bit if he remains on the practice field for the remainder of the summer.

Riley Cooper, WR, PHI
Source Yahoo ESPN CBS FFC NFL AVG
7/21/14 114 106 107 96 114 107.4
8/18/14 120 108 115 106 115 112.8
+/- +6 +2 +8 +10 +1 +5.4
Cooper made his return to the practice field on Sunday after missing almost three weeks of action because of an injured foot. While the loss of practice time hurts, there are other variables in play here that really stand to crush his value. The departure of DeSean Jackson opened up the door for more targets, but the addition of Darren Sproles, along with the return to health of Jeremy Maclin and the potential emergence of Zach Ertz make his role in this offense a serious question mark. Last season looks like a ceiling for him, meaning his current ADP as the 38th receiver off the board is looking pretty rich right now. Fantasy Football owners in non-PPR leagues may be willing to pay the price for one of the league’s better red zone options, but it’s hard to see more than 40 grabs here.
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