Gamblin'NFL

SportsGrid’s NFL Picks Against The Spread, Week 4: Wait, Matt Ryan Is Good?

The SportsGrid Bacchanal is a weekly NFL picks column that will drain your bank account with a smile. Floyd Mayweather approves this message.

I never thought I’d say this, but there isn’t enough time between each week of football anymore.

The NFL schedule of old, with a hoard of games on Sunday and one on Monday night, was perfect. You could erode (if by “erode” you mean “get fatter”) on your couch for ten straight hours on Sunday, and transition into the work/school week with Monday Night Football to ease the initial pain of, you know, your actual life.

Except with three nights a week of football — and eventually four, when they start playing Saturday night games towards the end of the season — my time is being eaten into like never before. I can’t watch games at bars because I am a nerd and I enjoy the commentary, so seeing actual, real-live people is more difficult than it was last year. It’s an odd predicament, and I’m unable to shake the compulsion to be plugged in while wanting to unplug.

So, on Monday night I decided to be EDGY and skip the game, only to walk into the SportsGrid office on Tuesday morning to find Dan and Glenn hollering on about some crazy play I had missed. Wait, what? I had to watch the replays, read the articles, all that crap – which, of course, I could have skipped had I just stayed home and watched. It’s a dilemma I’m always facing, and one always ends with football winning out. Damn you, football.

Sexy, sexy football.

Home team in bold. Off we go.

Cleveland Browns (+12) over Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens enjoy poo-pooing all over your expectations periodically throughout the season, and this feels like one of those games. They’re coming off a highly satisfying revenge win over the Pats, they’re at home and Brandon Weeden. Which, in short, spells disaster.

Joe Flacco is the worst. After watching Eli Manning proclaim himself a top five QB and then go on to win the Super Bowl, Flacco thought he’d try the same tactic this offseason when he innocently-not-so-innocently professed “I don’t think I’m top five, I think I’m the best.” There’s a fine line between inspiring bravado and being a smarmy little shit, and Flacco proceeded to take a massive dump on that line and wipe himself with your shock and outrage. And it’s particularly egregious when Flacco has by and large been the sole reason the Ravens haven’t been the dominating force that they should be. They have a strong defense and arguably the best running back in the league. And then they brought Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin into the mix so Flacco could bury his career alive. He’s Mark Sanchez on steroids, a QB who throws the ball three feet and watches his receivers/running backs turn it into 40-yard gains. In the play-by-play it will read, “Joe Flacco 40-yard pass to Ray Rice.” That is NOT what happened. Why can’t we get an honest retelling? “Joe Flacco is too chickenshit scared to throw the ball down the field, throws ball seven feet to Ray Rice, Ray Rice rushes ball for 40 yards.” But seriously, QBs should only get credit for passing yards from the line of scrimmage to the location the receiver caught the ball. The FRAUD QBs won’t be able to hide.

Atlanta Falcons (-7) over Carolina Panthers

Remember two years ago when the Atlanta Falcons finished 13-3 to grab the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but everyone and their mother knew they’d wilt like a flower Vince Wilfork sat on? They had the Kerry Collins-led Tennessee Titans written all over them – a strong team ultimately held back by their quarterback – because Matt Ryan (and Joe Flacco!) was fapping to a picture of Chad Pennington that season. That’s why most people didn’t see the Falcons stomping all over everyone this year – Matt Ryan wasn’t good enough. A friend of mine drafted him in the second round of our fantasy draft, and everyone berated him to no end. He’s the one laughing maniacally now, because Matt Ryan has decided to play the quarterback position. And that’s a scary prospect for the NFL, because the Atlanta Falcons have every other piece in place.

San Diego Chargers (+1) over Kansas City Chiefs

Ah, there it is. San Diego delighting you with flowers and flattery, only to come back five minutes later and throw a brick at your face. Norv Turner was at his trolling finest this past weekend, dialing up some mind-boggling playcalling without ever moving a facial muscle.

San Diego possession No. 1:

1st and 10 at SD 20: R.Mathews up the middle to SD 23 for 3 yards (S.Nicholas, A.Dent).
2nd and 7 at SD 23: P.Rivers pass short right to R.Mathews pushed ob at SD 33 for 10 yards (W.Moore).
1st and 10 at SD 33: (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to R.Mathews.
2nd and 10 at SD 33: (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short left to R.Meachem to SD 37 for 4 yards (S.Nicholas).
3rd and 6 at SD 37: (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short left to E.Royal to SD 40 for 3 yards (T.DeCoud).

“God, our running game sucks ASS,” Norv determines after one carry and one pseudo-run. “BETTER GO TO THE SHOTGUN FOR THREE STRAIGHT PLAYS.”

San Diego Possession No. 2:

1st and 10 at SD 28 P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to M.Floyd.
2nd and 10 at SD 28 P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to M.Floyd.
3rd and 10 at SD 28 (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to M.Floyd.

Guys, we have a commitment to abandon the run. WE WILL NOT ABANDON OUR COMMITMENT TO ABANDON THE RUN.

/looks at healthy Ryan Matthews, smiles

Still picking the Chargers, though it was difficult to pick a winner in a battle of “Who do I trust less?” between Norv Turner and Romeo Crennel.

Tennessee Titans (+12) over Houston Texans

Roger Goodell values a piece of Matt Schaub’s ear at $50,000 (Fine, fine, there was a one game suspension too). The amount of ear Schaub actually lost was small, so his total net worth has to be huge.

Schaub returned to the game after that hit. Holy hell. If I lost a piece of my ear doing anything, I would freak the fuck out, call my mother and bury myself in shitty daytime television for the next week while whimpering occasionally for extra pity. And of course I’d slowly concoct an exaggerated version of the tale with each retelling so my MANLINESS would be on display for everyone to behold.

Not gambling related, but still important (Gawker, via Reddit): PHOTOBOMB!

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins

The 2012 Arizona Cardinals are the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. Unbelievable defense out of nowhere. Inside linebacker you’ve never heard of that you’ve now heard of (NaVorro Bowman, Daryl Washington) because he’s awesome. Crappy QB who should have been cut a long time ago but will now survive thanks to everyone else picking up the slack/him not shitting the bed too much. Star pass catcher who would be the unquestionable best at his position if his quarterback didn’t shit the bed more often than not. Biggish name running back who’s quietly way worse than everyone realizes.

Now all we need is for the Cardinals to beat a pass-happy favorite in the divisional round of the playoffs (Atlanta), and to lay the smack down on an inferior opponent in the NFC Championship, only to be foiled by a rather dynamic punt returner committing an egregious brain fart. Twice.

And now it’s time for your Joe Philbin on Miami update:

“We really GUTTED that victory out, Ryan was poised, you know, uh, playing well, but not playing so well, in the game, on the field, against the Jets, our opponents, without Reggie, who was hurt, and our backups played well, guys came onto the field, where the game is played, between the lines, and Ryan was poised, drove us down there, in field goal range, where a field goal can be kicked from, to win the game, to beat the Jets, who we played against, and Ryan there, at the end, was just a nice FIT for our team, the Dolphins.”

Denver Broncos (-6.5) over Oakland Raiders

Remember when the Oakland Raiders drafted Sebastian Janikowski in the first round? That doesn’t seem so dumb anymore (sort of). Pittsburgh, along with the rest of America, knew the game was over last week when he trotted out onto the field. Janikowski wasn’t going to miss. Not from any distance. They could have brought him out for a 65-yarder and the game still would have been over. How many teams across the NFL have stable kicking situations? Very few. The Raiders have had a stable kicking situation for 12 years. That’s mighty impressive. Now, it’s too bad that the Raiders have undeniably SUCKED over those 12 years, but still. Had they made the playoffs more than twice in the last 12 years, that would have been a really smart pick.

Doesn’t this all seem like something Bill Belichick would do? The Pats, in a trade from 1984, now have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. They then proceed to trade down in the first round seven times (while picking up a first round pick in 2025 and 14 third rounders in 2037-2051), only to land up with the 26th pick in 2013. Then they cut the reliable Stephen Gostkowski because New England does shit like that and draft a kicker with that pick just to troll the hell out of every New England fan everywhere. Then they go on to win the Super Bowl by bringing back Reche Caldwell. This is how the Patriots work, and it’s the worst thing ever that they continue to be successful.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) over New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton is popping champagne with his agent somewhere right now. What does Saints ownership say when he comes in next season demanding an $8 billion extension? “We don’t need you, we can go 0-3 and watch our flagship offense crumble to pieces instead.”

In other news, here’s a tweet from Darren Rovell this morning:

Goodell: “I’ve been in touch with a couple of a Packers. I understand their frustration.”

— darren rovell (@darrenrovell) September 27, 2012

As you may remember, Aaron Rodgers lit into the NFL a few days ago for its handling of this entire referee lockout and its bogus statement in response to the non-simultaneous-catch-simultaneous catch. Plenty of other players have voiced their frustration, and it’s looking like Roger Goodell won’t do anything about it. Because he can’t. The shitstorm that would rain down if he fined a player for complaining about the scabs would be massive. And it would probably be actual shit because no one likes Roger Goodell. So for the first time in history, Roger Goodell can’t fap to suspensions he has levied/will levy. Hold onto this moment, if you would.

New York Giants (+1.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid recently backtracked from his comments suggesting that Michael Vick could be benched because it’s obviously FORSAKEN to suggest that a player playing like garbage could be replaced in favor of another one. DON’T MESS WITH HIS CONFIDENCE. This is the worst argument ever. I have absolutely no problem with coaches bashing players in public. Newsflash: the entire world saw you play like shit, so it’s no revelation that the coach thinks you played like shit also. Reid previously said that the coaching staff would “evaluate as we go,” which every knows is the honest truth. But because he’s required to follow some backwards rubric that nobody listens to anyway, he firmly insisted that Michael Vick is the starting QB.

The bigger issue though is Andy Reid, who ran the ball with LeSean McCoy all of FOUR TIMES in the first half against the Cardinals. It’s like he refuses to use his best playmaker. Brian Westbrook suffered through the same fate during his time in Philadelphia, and history is repeating itself now. Now I understand that there’s this awkward grace period in which Reid is entitled to be a little off his game because his son passed away, but he isn’t off his game. He’s on his game, and that game is god awful, so it’s time for a new coach. Which, of course, means an extension is forthcoming.

Other Games:

Buffalo Bills (+4) over New England Patriots

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) over Detroit Lions

San Francisco 49ers (-4) over New York Jets

Saint Louis Rams (+2.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over Washington Redskins

Chicago Bears (+3.5) over Dallas Cowboys

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