Super Bowl Prop$: How To Make Money On Stupid S***, Like Which Stupid Hat Stupid Bruno Mars Wears
Super Bowl XLVIII looks as exciting as any Super Bowl in recent memory. Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning. Seattle Seahawks. Best offense. Best defense. This is rare.
But still, if you’re not a fan of either team, you likely want things to root for, if you’re a human. And if you’re not a human, what are you? A very intelligent dog? A toy? If you’re a dog or toy or alien reading my column, please tweet me proof.
So, you should probably bet on some stupid Super Bowl prop bets. They’re incredibly fun, and if you look hard enough, you might actually win money.
NOTE: Most of these props come from Bovada.lv, a “sportsbook” commonly cited by media outlets. However, few serious bettors use Bovada. They are quick to shut out winning players. They’re more of a “marketing company” that caters to the public, as WagerMinds aptly described. The limits on these bets are probably low. They’re mainly for fun and attention-grabbing.
Still, they’re fun. Let’s bet on them.
The 5-STAR LOCK of the Year
(A habit of silly people who bet on sports is to tout something as a LOCK, or ask someone for their LOCKS. As I mentioned earlier this year, the only locks/lox worth betting on are the ones on Denard Robinson’s head and the ones that pair best with cream cheese.)
That said, there is one LOCK this year.
Coin Toss: Heads (-103), Tails (-103) (BetOnline.ag)
For this to be a smart bet, “tails” needs to have better than a 50.74% chance of winning. You shitting me with this, oddsmakers? EASY FUCKING MONEY.
If you put $1,000 annually into an index fund averaging a 4.36% return on investment, you’ll have $376,000 in 30 years, adjusted for inflation. (I made those calculations up.) But if you bet that same $1,030 on Tails (-103) this year, you’ll have $2,000 on Sunday afternoon. Which is the better investment?
I guess people think it’s too good to be true. But the thing is, proverbs never lie.
“Tails never fails.” – Chinese Proverb.
Fact: This year’s coin toss will be tails.
Fact: Tails has never failed. (Except for the past three years, which were heads, but Malcolm Gladwell proved that this will never happen again, in his book, Outliers.)
Fact: Really, the Law of Averages dictates that if a coin toss has wound up heads three years in a row, there’s NO CHANCE it will happen again. I mean, that’d just be insane! That would be like it raining three days in a row, which is crazy! But then you bet on it to not rain on the fourth day… but you were wrong! That’s physically impossible.
Bet: TAILS NEVER FAILS, $Entire Savings Account$
See? I put my money where my mouth is.
— Matt Rudnitsky (@Mattrud) January 22, 2014
(Ignore the facts that I did not yet hit “PLACE MY BET,” and I do not have that much money in a betting account. Also, please understand the above “recommendation” was written in jest.)
The Ones You Should Actually Bet On
Who will win Super Bowl MVP? (taken from multiple sites)
1 Peyton Manning (DEN) +130
2 Russell Wilson (SEA) +375
3 Marshawn Lynch (SEA) +575
4 Demaryius Thomas (DEN) +2000
5 Percy Harvin (SEA) +2500
6 Richard Sherman (SEA) +2500
8 Knowshon Moreno (DEN) +2000
15 Montee Ball (DEN) +7500
Peyton Manning to win Super Bowl MVP is the pick… if you like the Broncos. (I am likely betting on the Broncos, but check back on Monday for my pick$ column.) And if you like the Broncos… it’s hard not to like Peyton Manning to win Super Bowl MVP. Because that means you think there’s value at Broncos -135 on the moneyline. And if Denver wins, what are the chances are that Manning wins MVP? 90%? (That’s a complete guess… but if remotely accurate, there’s value on him to win MVP. He didn’t even have great numbers in 2007, but he still won it.)
Really… which other Bronco would win MVP if they win the game? If the Broncos win, Peyton Manning very likely had at least a decent game. If one of his receivers has an MVP-worthy performance… he’ll still probably win. Say Demaryius Thomas goes off for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means Peyton is almost certainly at 300+ and 3+ TDs. Doesn’t he still win it? And I’m talking the most extreme scenario. The only people I could see winning it are: A running back (but Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball have been splitting time), a defensive guy who scores a touchdown and does other crazy shit (maybe two pick-sixes? five sacks and a strip-sack for TD?)… or Trindon Holliday (for returning 2+ kicks for scores). All of these things are highly unlikely, in my opinion. If the Broncos win, Peyton almost certainly wins MVP.
If you like the Seahawks, I also would like Russell Wilson to win MVP. It’s far less of a sure thing than Peyton, but since the Broncos’ strength on defense is stopping runs up the middle… I like Russ’s chances better than Marshawn’s… and I think those are by FAR the two likeliest players to win it. I guess a multi-pick Richard Sherman performance might do it, too.
Prediction: Peyton Manning. (I’m so bold.)
Bet? Yes. $200 to win $260.
Any longshots? If you like Seattle, take Wilson. I guess if you want a real longshot, I’d go with Montee Ball at +7500. If he gets starter’s carries (unlikely), then that’s amazing value. If you bet on Matt Prater at +10000, I will shake your hand.
Nevada Handle for Super Bowl
Over 102 Million Dollars -150
Under 102 Million Dollars +120
If you have $102,000,000 on hand and the ability to get to Vegas, this is free money. (Except if you lose your $102-million bets, since you can’t bet that money on this, in Vegas.)
Total Rushing Yards – Montee Ball (DEN)
Player must play in game for wagers to have action. If Moreno does not play all wagers are no action.
Knowshon Moreno is expected to play… but he’s banged up. And Ball is better than him. If John Fox has any sense (though I must admit, an NFL coach having sense is like a politician having sense), he’ll get 10+ carries. The Seahawks’ (relative) weakness is their rush defense. Worth a tiny bet for shits and gigs. I wouldn’t bet this normally. But it’s the Super Bowl! You have to waste your money. It’s the American thing to do.
Bet: OVER 32.5 (-105), $52.50 to win $50
Will Champ Bailey (DEN) record an interception?
Champ Bailey has 13 interceptions in his past 94 games. That means (ignoring multi-INT games, which would just further validate my point), there’s something like a 14% chance he gets a pick. And that ignores the fact that he’s old and not in great shape and kind of sucks. Though I guess you could argue they’ll target him a lot. That’s why I don’t do this for a living. But, still, there just has to be a greater than 80% chance of him not getting a pick for this to be smart, and I think it is.
Bet: NO PICK YO (-400), $400 to win $100
How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the game?
(From kick off until final whistle. Live pictures only, any taped pictures or past video does not count towards wager. Half time does not count towards wager.)
Two things. 1) This opened at 2. That means some people think they aren’t gonna show Archie Manning on TV at all. I don’t buy it. And, 2) Eli Manning’s O/U is 1.5. Does that mean they won’t be sitting together? I don’t know what’s going on here, but it doesn’t seem like there’s any chance of Archie NOT being shown. Unless he’s at home watching Barefoot Contessa reruns, or something.
Bet: OVER 1 (-120), $240 to win $200
Which song will Bruno Mars perform first?
Just The Way You Are 6/1
Locked Out Of Heaven 3/1
Marry You 7/1
The Lazy Song 10/1
Can I bet on none of them? Can I bet on him having laryngitis and staying home? No? Then let’s go with “Locked Out Of Heaven.” I just looked it up. It is current and upbeat. Grenade is too sappy and slow. It’s going to be “Locked Out Of Heaven.” I’m going to win this. Bet the house.
Bet: “Locked Out Of Heaven (+300), $100 to win $300
Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the Super Bowl from kickoff until final whistle?
From kick off until final whistle. Book manager’s decision is final. Must say Sherman in any capacity.
Oooooooh, this is a good one! I leaned towards YES at first, but: 1) How do we know Crabtree will even watch the game? Also, 2) He doesn’t tweet often. And, 3) He has to “say Sherman.” When he called out Sherman, he didn’t “say Sherman.” I think I found a loophole. SO MUCH VALUE!!!!
Bet: NO TWEET (-200), $200 to win $100
Will Percy Harvin be injured in the game? (Must be injured and reported by broadcasters and not return to game)
These odds actually seem somewhat fair, given that he can aggravate his existing injuries quite easily. But, what the fuck? This is fucked up. I’m taking a stand. I would rather root for him to NOT get hurt, because I’m not (that much of) a scumbag.
And you’d think he’s not coming out for the game unless he’s realllllllly hurt. Or concussed.
Bet: NO HURTING (-300), $300 to win $100
Who will Barack Obama pick to win the game?
Seattle Seahawks -120
Denver Broncos -120
Seattle has more electoral votes. #strategy
Bet: OBAMAHAWKS (-120), $12 to win $10
Total Passing Yards, Russell Wilson: 199.5 (BetOnline)
The Broncos allowed 251.1 passing yards per game, and 6.7 yards per attempt. Seattle averaged 7.6 yards per passing attempt and 196.2 yards per game. The number seems mostly fair, but like I said, the Broncos’ weakness is their pass-D, and Wilson has topped 200 yards in 11 of 18 games. Virtually all of the under-200 games came against good pass defenses. Denver’s is not good.
Bet: OVER 199.5 (-130), $260 to win $200
Total Rushing Yards, Marshawn Lynch: 90.5
Denver’s strength is their run-defense up the middle.
Bet: UNDER 90.5 (+105), $200 to win $210
What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?
These motherfuckers are smart. They made the Super Bowl. They probably have coconut water in Gatorade buckets.
Bet: CLEAR/(COCONUT?) WATER (+200), $50 to win $100
Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the mention first in his speech?
Wager is on Interview done with the Super Bowl MVP on field during the Trophy Presentation only. If Co-MVP wager is on first to speak.
Other Team or Player on Other Team 7/1
Does not mention any of the above 4/1
Peyton won in 2007. He’s gonna win again, obvi. Back in ’07, he mentioned his teammates about 95 times, then Dungy. Then Jim Nantz. That was all. History always repeats itself. Though Nantz sorta baited him. He probably bet on this.
Bet: THE TEAM THE TEAM THE TEAM (+200), $50 to win $100
Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
EASY MONEY. Denver has beaten Seattle in local TV ratings the past three years. By a significant margin.
Except obviously both cities will be high as fuck and all forget to tune in.
Bet: DENVER (-130), $390 to win $300
What will be higher?
Both Must play for action. Wagers are for games played on February 2nd.
Total Rebounds in the game Victor Oladipo vs Boston -130
Golden Tate Receptions EVEN
Victor Oladipo is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game in his last 5 games. Golden Tate is a douchebag whose name is Golden. He’s caught more than five passes just three times this year, and he sucks, and Percy Harvin is playing. And he sucks.
Bet: DIPO over DOUCHE-O (-130), $390 to win $300
Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB?
Announcers love talking about shit that everybody knows. And in the Super Bowl, there will actually be tons of people that don’t know this. So, they should mention it. HOW IS THIS THE UNDERDOG? LOCK CITY!
Bet: YES (+150), $100 to win $150
First player out in game w/ concussion from
Denver Broncos +200
Seattle Seahawks +200
No Concussion Suffered in Game +100
I’M NOT ROOTING FOR CONCUSSIONS, JEEZ
Bet: NONE, PLZ (+100), $25 to win $25
First player to get taunting or unsportsmanlike
Richard Sherman +900
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie +1300
Golden Tate +1600
Demaryius Thomas +2000
No Listed Player Receives Penalty -700
Tate’s flying under the radar here. It’s Tate or nothing. Tate is the worst.
TERRY GOLDEN TATE FORCIER (+1600), $10 to win $160
First player to spin ball on ground from
Denver Broncos +110
Seattle Seahawks +130
No Player Spins Ball on Ground +300
If Tate manages to catch a pass for a first down, this is an easy win.
Bet: HAWKS (+130), $25 to win $32.50
The Funny Ones
Is Bruno Mars stupid?
NO – +1000000000000
(That may have been fabricated.)
Official number of fans in attendance in stadium
…you shitting me?
Will a substitute referee be needed?
…you shitting me?
If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing US National Anthem, what color will they be?
Any Other Color +300
Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the signing of the National Anthem?
Will the announcers say the word “Marijuana” during the game?
How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha” during the game?
This is the only way to make people’s obsession with “Omaha” tolerable. LOL HE SAID OMAHA LOLOLOLOLOL.
GUESS: UNDER. I HOPE.
Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance?
GUESS: NO. (There are kids watching that could be offended by nipples!)
What will Bruno Mars be wearing on his head at the start of his halftime performance?
Fur Hat +500
No hat +200
What the fuck is a tuque?
Will Richard Sherman receive a taunting penalty in the game?
Funny. But, like, probably not.
Will Richard Sherman receive an unnecessary roughness penalty in the game?
GUESS: NO. (See above.)
Will Richard Sherman receive a pass interference penalty in the game?
Will Richard Sherman be interviewed on field after the game by Erin Andrews on the live FOX broadcast?
Alright, we get it.
Will Wes Welker drop a pass in the game?
Will any player receive a penalty for excessive celebration?
Translation: How stupid are football players?
GUESS: GOLDEN TATE. (But actually, NO.)
If the Broncos win will Peyton Manning retire before game 1 of the 2014 Regular Season?
GUESS: Is this a thing? (NO.)
How many times will “Beast Mode” be said during the game?
GUESS: I’ll take the over. But I’m guessing push.
What will be higher?
Total Corner kicks West Ham vs Liverpool -115
Total Penalties in the Super Bowl -115
GUESS: Corner kicks!
Will Bruno Mars and the Red Hot Chili Peppers play a song on stage at the same time?
GUESS: GOSH I HOPE NOT. (NO.)
I may update this page as new props are put up. It’s still really early. I’ll track my results. What’s your favorite prop bet? Let me know.