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FantasyNFL

Week 11 Fantasy Flex Football Rankings: Look Forward To The Playoffs


THE FLEXPERT

With the trade deadline looming, many Fantasy gamers find themselves currently dissecting their teams – getting allJonah Keri – trying to find out where they can squeeze that extra two-percent out of their squad. And really, the only way to do that is: A) continue to make shrewd pickups every week and constantly be improving or B) Go out and acquire some currently undervalued pieces that are going to benefit from a soft playoff schedule. That would be Weeks 15 and 16. If you’re concerned about Week 17, I hate your league, and you should really find a better one for next year. There’s no need for that nonsense.

Planning too much in advance can be problematic, though – this is the NFL. Things are capricious enough week-to-week. You can’t plot unknown variables like injuries, weather or if a team is going to decide to rest its players because they’ve already clinched. Attempting to accurately predict what will happen a month from now is no exact science.

Fortunately, I hear the jury’s still out on science.

However, there is one constant we can pencil in now: The Schedule, we’ve known that for months. And, based on the first 10 weeks of data, we can begin to plug in some of those numbers to get a sense which way the outcome is leaning in the “Best players to trade for” formula. This is no simple Y = mx +b cookie cutter algebra we’re dealing with here. It’s one of those equations you encounter in theoretical calculus that use imaginary numbers (i ), infinity symbols (∞) and summations (∑) – commonly known to most people as “that weird E-shaped thing”. In reality, it’s unsolvable. Doesn’t mean I won’t do some educated guesswork though. This is Fantasy football, not an experiment in covalent bonding – no lethal explosion is going to come from an improperly calculated hypothesis. Unless it’s a STAT SHEET EXPLOSION (which would be an exothermic reaction). So lets have some fun with it.

THE ALL UNDERVALUED FANTASY PLAYOFF ROSTER

First, I need to make a qualifier: Do not trade any of your elite players for an undervalued one. They’re elite for a reason. One of the main ones involves in the words “match up” and “proof” and it’s not, “I’m going to lose this match up, someone call Quebec and get me some 94% proof Alcool”. Just a heads up, don’t ever do a shot of Alcool. Save the money and drink some rubbing alcohol, it’s essentially the same thing. Although, neither is recommended. If you trade one of your stars, at any position, for an undervalued player, you’ve taken the “under” right out of his value. I know I shouldn’t have to state this because it’s fairly common sense, but I get enough ludicrous inquiries every week to fill a “Worst Twitter Questions in the World” segment on the “Pat Mayo Hour” podcast. TUNE IN, DAMMIT. I don’t want to gloss over it.

OK, we’re going through the looking glass on this. I’m letting you behind the curtain on my “method” of ranking and projecting players. The place I start every week? The numbers. Now, this is no secret, and definitely should not be the crux of any conclusion, but it’s a terrific launching point. Even though the small sample size of football makes it the least predictable branch on the Fantasy sports family tree – Fantasy golf is close – there’s still pertinent info to absorb. Football metrics aren’t a map per se, they’re more of a random person you ask on the sidewalk where closest place to buy #CIGS is: Most of the time you get pointed in the proper direction. But there are instances when you inadvertently stumble into the bad part of town and end up $60 and iPhone lighter before you figure that out. Chris Johnson should have went off against Jacksonville last week. And while he wasn’t awful in PPR scoring, he certainly didn’t live up to the lofty expectations brought forth by the juicy match up. It happens.

What you want to try and do is swap someone on your bench, potentially one currently riding a hot streak, for a player that people can’t give away fast enough. You know, the old buy low/sell high rope-a-dope – I preached it last week regarding Ray Rice. Someone whose stock I’m still stashing, I’m just keeping those shares in my shed out back where no one can judge me over it. Sometimes I rent the shed out to Mike Leach for some side cash! And the best part of not giving up a starter for one of these guys with great matchups? You don’t need to rely on them – they’re merely insurance.

QB: Colin Kaepernick
RB: CJ Spiller
RB: Ray Rice
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: DeSean Jackson
TE: Jordan Cameron
FLEX: Fred Jackson
FLEX: Steven Jackson
D/ST: TEN D/ST

Colin Kaepernick (at TB, v ATL) – An elite QB isn’t necessary to win a Fantasy title, but having one is the easiest way to make the playoffs. Once you’re in though, it’s time to adjust. Trust me, there’s a reason Mark BrunellBrad Johnson and Marc Bulger have all been inducted into my personal Fantasy Hall of Fame after propelling me to titles.Colin Kaepernick has the potential to do the same. Currently, no one wants him coming off his mournful performance against the Panthers, so you can pry him away without encountering much resistance, and reap the benefits later. He’s the perfect Peyton Manning playoff handcuff.

Honorable mention: Robert Griffin III (at ATL, v. DAL), Tony Romo (v. GB, at WAS), Nick Foles (at MIN, v. CHI)

C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson (at JAX, v. MIA) Stephen Jackson (v. WAS, at SF), Ray Rice (at DET, v. NE) – Look at these names, who in their right minds would want them? In the present, I agree. We all know about the “talent” C.J. SpillerRay Rice and Steven Jackson possess, it’s what made the trio Top 20 picks in this year’s draft, but Fred Jackson – he’s a different case. Mainly, because he’s actually been awesome this season, it’s just no one seems to want to acknowledge that. It hasn’t mattered what point of the 2013 roller coaster Spiller is at, Jackson’s been steady. The same goes for Jacquizz Rodgers, who you probably don’t have to trade for, since he was likely dropped in your league. He benefits from the same simple schedule as S Jax – obv – and there’s a far greater chance he’s not on the IR by Week 15.

NOTE: Alfred Morris and LeSean McCoy deserve special mention too. Both are elite players already, but of that top tier group, they have far and away the best match ups to close the season. So, if you’re making a blockbuster trade at the deadline, make certain one of those two is coming back your way.

DeAndre Hopkins (at IND, v. DEN), DeSean Jackson (at MIN, v. CHI) – DeAndre Hopkins, and his glorious dreads, are on the precipice of finally breaking out over this closing stretch. Hopkins’ targets have increased every week since Case Keenum took over under center – reaching 11 last week – and honestly, he’s a more legit vertical option than Andre Johnson. Eventually, his production will start to equal his opportunity. In fact, it may even start this week. And DeSean Jackson is still a Top 15 WR the rest of the season, but, right now, that’s being over shadowed by Riley Cooper’s five TDs in two weeks. It’s presented a tiny buying window for D Jax’ services. Something you’ll be glad you purchased when he’s scoring deep TDs against the sieve pass defenses of the NFC North.

Honorable MentionDwayne Bowe, if not suspended by then (at OAK, v. IND), Keenan Allen (at DEN, v. OAK)

Jordan Cameron (v. CHI, at NYJ) – Jordan Cameron benefits from his easy finish, but he’s just a great buy in general. He’s been one of the most consistent big men all season, yet everyone wants to give up on him after his 1 catch, 4-yard showing in week 9. Compound that with a bye and now everyone forgets that he’s good. Yes, that’s the fickle mind of Fantasy football players. Go buy JC.

Honorable Mention: Delaine Walker (v. ARZ, at JAX)

Tennessee Defense/Special Teams (v. ARZ, at JAX) – A playoffs of going against Carson Palmer and Chad Henne? Sign me up.

#THROWBACKTRACK

 

I used to blast this song through my headphones every time I jumped on C-Line. Yes, I’m that guy. The Beasties also opened with this when I saw them at Bonnaroo in 2009, still my favorite concert ever. Nas was there too!

WEEK 11 QB RANKS

EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX

  1. CLE/CIN
  2. WAS/PHI
  3. BAL/CHI
  4. DET/PIT
  5. NYJ/BUF
  6. ATL/TB
  7. OAK/HOU
  8. ARZ/JAX

SUICIDE LAY UP

SEA over MIN

STREAM DEFENSE OF THE WEEK

ARZ at JAX

SUPER STREAM DEFENSE OF THE WEEK

  1. NYJ at BUF
  2. IND at TEN
  3. BUF vs NYJ

SUPERLOCK

IND (-3)

THE REVENGE SOCIETY

Percy Harvin vs MIN

QUICK READS

How good is Rashad Jennings? Well, some people in Oakland think he’s making Darren McFadden expendable. But remember 1) DMC made himself expendable 2) Anyone paying close attention to the Raiders is likely an insane person.

Both Shane Veeren and Percy Harvin are making their returns this week… BOUT TIME. I like both this week. I’m not concerned with buzz phrases like “limited snap counts” or “Not 100%”, Harvin has a REVENGE GAME against the Vikings; Pete Carroll will make sure he gets his. How real of a thing is a revenge game? Sixers guard James Anderson dropped 36 on the Rockets Wednesday night. James Anderson. That name is so generic he actually sounds made up. As for Veeren, once the Patriots figure out that running the ball ain’t be workin against the Panthers, they’ll take to the air, which means the game will get an injection of Vereen for the first time since opening week.

The Chargers don’t boast any elite corners, so for Week 11 it’s Mike WallaceBrian HartlineRishard Matthews.

Don’t give up on Tim Wright yet. Not every team can be run all over like Miami. Expect TIMMMMMAY to get back in the mix against the Falcons.

The Dolphins defense made Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey look like Barry Sanders, this why Danny Woodhead is inside my Top 5 at RB. Well, that and his 6 reception per game average.

I kind of like Bobby Rainey. For the remainder of the season I’d rather him than Andre “Juke” Ellington. I prefer Ellington as a talent, but it’s clear Bruce Arians will not give him more than 15 touches a game, despite how progressively more decrepit Rashard Mendenhall looks every week. Rainey may flame out, but the opportunity for a 25+ touch per game workload is there. I’d rather gamble on that.

Santonio Holmes is back for the Jets. He’s had one good game this season, a 5-154-1 effort against the Bills. He’s a sneaky sleeper. As is the man standing on the parallel sideline, David Nelson. Buffalo’s the anti-Hansel at covering receivers, not so hot right now.

The Harry Douglas/Roddy White saga continues. But there’s a new wrinkle this week: Who is Darrelle Revisgoing to cover? Initially, I would have said Tony Gonzalez, but he’s iffy to suit up. So I figure Revis starts on White, until Tampa realizes they can just use a scarecrow to D him up. Someone in Atlanta’s receiving corps is going to have a huge day, and knowing how Fantasy football works, it’ll probably be stupid Drew Davis, who hasn’t done anything in weeks. It’s him, or Darius Johnson. Johnson > Davis.

Mike TolbertJonathan StewartDeAngelo Williams

The Saints have given up TDs to running backs in seven straight games. That’s the reason Kendall Hunter is higher than normal. “Higher than normal” is also why Dwayne Bowe is so low.

After being embarrassed Monday night, gaining just 2 rushing yards (LOLZ), the Dolphins are most definitely going to force the running game this week. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are no great talents, but they’ll get their chance to run against the Chargers. If only the match up was better.

If anyone ever offers you anything of value for your D/ST, make the deal. I don’t care if you own the ’85 Bears, there are always equivalent, streamable options available.

Kendall Wright benefits from the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick. In Fitz’ four games, Wright has at least 5 receptions, 56 yards and 8 targets. WHOA, WHOA, WHOA FITZMAGIC!!!!!!!!!!! For some reason, Justin Hunter got in on the action last week too. With Fitz’ limited arm strength, expect Hunter to be a more viable option than Nate Washington moving forward.

I struggle pronounce his last name, but Chris Ogbonnaya is a quality sleeper pick up for the next few weeks. I think you’ll see the Og Dawg emerge as the primary ball toucher in the Browns backfield. Most of which has to do with Willis McGahee being a complete travesty.

Rob Housler scored his first career TD last week. I actually thought he had a lot more than that. Betcha he makes it two in a row against the Jags, though. The only the Cards themselves are worse at covering tight ends.

You have the right to be terrified of Tom Brady and the entire Pats receiving corps this week. Carolina has yet to cede more than one passing score in any game thus far, giving up a total of 7 passing TDs in 9 weeks. Yuck. InGRONK i trust, and that’s about it.

Remember, the Eagles don’t cover WR2s. Happened again with Jarrett Boykin last week. So keep an eye onLeonard “Hank” Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson if you need a deep flyer.

Word out of Buffalo is C.J. Spiller’s limited role is actually a part of the “Game Plan” not because of an injury. So… the Bills are crappy at football and lying?

San Francisco is awesome at limiting running backs………. not. Start Pierre Thomas with confidence. Darren Sproles too.

Do me a favor and please, please, please do not pick up Mark Ingram or Tavon Austin, and especially don’t ever play them. Unless you’re a Fantasy masochist, I suppose.

There’s a lot to like about Case Keenum this week. Particularly that he’s playing Oakland.

Don’t just dump Doug Baldwin just because Percy Harvin is returning. Baldy is actually really good.

He may be on bye, but Zac Stacy is a Top 10 RB the rest of the way.

And finally… I talked about a bunch of guys to acquire because of playoff matchups, what about players to move, you ask? There are two that stick out: Andrew Luck and Larry Fitzgerald.

WEEK 11 FLEX RANKS

Remember to check back Saturday evening for an injury update and Sunday after the Inactives are released. Full rankings adjustment and fresh QUICK READS covering the Fantasy spin of each news event.

Rankings set to PPR scoring format:

1 point for every 10 yards Rushing/Receiving
1 point per reception
6 points per Touchdown

Points per reception (PPR) scoring must be treated differently than standard leagues. Receivers and scat backs like Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead and Roy Helu have inflated value in PPR scoring. As do possession receivers – Wes Welker, Danny Amendola and others in their mold are safer options. Catches tend to be more consistent and predictive. Obviously, touchdowns and yards are still important, but when considering FLEX options exploit any advantage you can. For standard scoring, running backs with hands of stone like Alfred Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley all see their stocks rise without catches in the mix.

  1. Jamaal Charles
  2. Marshawn Lynch
  3. LeSean McCoy
  4. Calvin Johnson
  5. Andre Johnson
  6. Pierre Garcon
  7. Brandon Marshall
  8. Jimmy Graham
  9. Antonio Brown
  10. Knowshon Moreno
  11. Danny Woodtête
  12. Demaryius Thomas
  13. Vincent Jackson
  14. DeSean Jackson
  15. Matt Forte
  16. Frank Gore
  17. Reggie Bush
  18. Adrian Peterson
  19. Pierre Thomas
  20. A.J. Green
  21. Eric Decker
  22. Alfred Morris
  23. Andre Brown
  24. Victor Cruz
  25. Alshon Jeffery
  26. Josh Gordon
  27. Eddie Lacy
  28. Gio Bernard
  29. Rashad Jennings
  30. Jordy Nelson
  31. Julius Thomas
  32. Rob Gronkowski
  33. Sideshow Cecil Shorts
  34. Wes Welker
  35. Riley Cooper
  36. T.Y. Hilton
  37. Jordan Reed
  38. Jordan Cameron
  39. Kendall Wright
  40. Ben Tate
  41. Le’Veon Bell
  42. Antonio Gates
  43. Fred Jackson
  44. Darren Sproles
  45. Golden Tate
  46. Keenan Allen
  47. DeAndre Hopkins
  48. Larry Fitzgerald
  49. Torrey Smith
  50. Percy Harvin a time (REVENGE SOCIETY CANDIDATE)
  51. Mike Wallace
  52. Martellus Bennett
  53. Chris Johnson
  54. Ray Rice
  55. Bobby Rainey
  56. Jarrett Boykin
  57. Marques Colston
  58. Denarius Moore
  59. Danny Amendola
  60. Doug Baldwin
  61. Steve Smith
  62. Santonio Holmes
  63. Harry Douglas
  64. Emmanuel Sanders
  65. Andre Roberts
  66. Andre Ellington
  67. Ryan Mathews
  68. Donald Brown
  69. Hakeem Nicks
  70. James Jones
  71. Mike WHO DAT Brown
  72. CJ SPILLLLLAAAAAAAAAAAAA
  73. Chris Ivory
  74. Coby Fleener
  75. Vernon Davis
  76. David Nelson
  77. Aaron Dobson
  78. Brian Leonard
  79. Mike Tolbert
  80. Jacquizz Rodgers
  81. Stevan RIDLEY
  82. Rob Housler
  83. Tony Gonzalez
  84. John Carlson
  85. Lamar Miller
  86. Shane Vereen
  87. Maurice Jones-Drew
  88. Brian Hartline
  89. Leonard Hankerson
  90. Rishard Matthews
  91. Tim Wright
  92. MARV Jones
  93. Lance Moore
  94. Anquan Boldin
  95. Too Nuked” Dwayne Bowe
  96. Marlon Brown
  97. Tiquan Underwood
  98. The Walls of Jericho Cotchery
  99. Heath Miller
  100. Delanie Walker
  101. Greg Olsen
  102. Reuben Randle
  103. Kenny Powers Stills
  104. Rashard Mendenhall
  105. Jonathan Stewart
  106. DeAngelo Williams
  107. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
  108. Kendall Hunter
  109. Chris Ogbonnaya
  110. Joique Bell
  111. T.J. Graham
  112. Brandon LaFell SEXUAL
  113. Aldrick Robinson
  114. Rod Streater
  115. Julian Edelman
  116. Steven Jackson
  117. Bilal POWWWWell
  118. Fozzy Wozzy Whittaker
  119. Daniel Thomas
  120. Greg Little
  121. Kris Durham
  122. Donnie Avery
  123. Justin Hunter
  124. Eddie Royal
  125. Cordarrelle Patterson
  126. Marquise Goodwin
  127. TED GINN JR.
  128. Devone Bess
  129. Nate Washington
  130. Mario Manningham
  131. Trent Richardson
  132. Roy Helu
  133. Shonn Greene
  134. Peyton Hillis
  135. Roddy White
  136. Griff Whalen
  137. Jason Avant
  138. Tandon Doss
  139. Jerome Simpson
  140. Charles Dice Clay
  141. Chris Gragg
  142. Brandon Pettigrew
  143. Tyler Eifert
  144. Garrett Graham
  145. Jacoby Jones
  146. Greg Jennings
  147. Marcus Easley
  148. Dexter McSuckster
  149. Jordan Todman
  150. Willis McGahee
  151. LeGarrette Blount
  152. Stephen Hill
  153. Ace Sanders
  154. Darius Johnson
  155. Santana Moss
  156. Markus Wheaton
  157. Jermaine Kearse
  158. Vincent Brown
  159. Robert Meachem
  160. Marlon Moore
  161. Drew Davis
  162. Nick Toon
  163. Michael Bush
  164. Ronnie Brown
  165. Scott Chandler
  166. Zach Ertz
  167. Anthony Fasano
  168. Jonathan Dwyer
  169. Knile Davis
  170. Denard Robinson
  171. Robert Turbin
  172. Jermaine Gresham
  173. Dallas Clark
  174. Brent Celek
  175. Zach Sudfeld
  176. Brandon Jacobs
  177. Stephan Taylor
  178. Anthony Dixon
  179. John Kuhn
  180. Toby Gerhart
  181. C.J. Anderson
  182. Michael Cox
  183. Alfonso Smith
  184. Jackie Battle
  185. Khiry Robinson
  186. Brandon Bolden
  187. Mychal Rivera
  188. Brandon Myers
  189. Not Christian Fauria
  190. Clay Harbor
  191. Andrew Quarless
  192. Felix Jones
  193. Darrel Young
  194. Tashard Choice
  195. LaVon Brazil
  196. Myles White

WORST PLACE

  1. Mark Ingram
  2. Jared Cook
  3. Montee Ball
  4. Tavon Austin
  5. Miles Austin
  6. Zach Miller

 



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