1. Mediaite
  2. Gossip Cop
  3. Geekosystem
  4. Styleite
  5. SportsGrid
  6. The Mary Sue
  7. The Maude
  8. The Braiser
Soccer

2014 Brazil World Cup Odds: The USMNT Isn’t Completely Screwed (Well, In The Group Stage Vs. Ghana And Portugal)


USMNTThe 2014 Brazil World Cup draw, hosted by a tremendously attractive Brazilian model, is over. All of the groups are set.

Now that we know who’s playing who, we can be a bit more precise in calculating the odds that each team wins the World Cup. (Spoiler: Team USA has virtually zero chance of winning it all. But they DO have a chance of advancing through Group G. Scroll down for those odds.)

Here are the latest odds, via BetFair (a European-based sportsbook, because, let’s be honest, you shouldn’t trust Las Vegas’s numbers on soccer):

Brazil: 7/2
Argentina: 5/1
Germany: 6/1
Spain: 8/1

Belgium: 16/1
Colombia: 22/1
France: 24/1
Italy: 29/1
Netherlands: 29/1
England: 29/1
Uruguay: 31/1
Portugal: 39/1

Chile: 59/1

Russia: 89/1

Switzerland: 129/1
Ecuador: 149/1
Mexico: 149/1
Japan: 189/1
Ivory Coast: 189/1
Bosnia: 219/1

Croatia: 279/1
Ghana: 279/1

USA: 299/1

Nigeria: 309/1
Greece: 359/1

South Korea: 519/1

Australia: 809/1

Cameroon: 999/1
Algeria: 999/1
Iran: 999/1
Costa Rica: 999/1
Honduras: 999/1

So, a $100 bet on the USMNT would net you $29,900, or about 2.5-times Brazil’s GDP per capita! (If they won. So, all it will get you is an expensive delusion.) If you strangely think we can win the World Cup, you’re going to be very sad.

The good news: BetFair’s odds suggest that we have a better chance to advance than Ghana, putting us at 85/40 to make it through.

Implied probabilities of advancing through Group G (via BetFair, by my very rough math)

Germany: 93%
Portugal: 67%
USA: 22%
Ghana: 18%

Given that Portugal is assuredly overrated due to name recognition (but Ghana is probably underrated), these seem like mostly fair odds. Though, of course, it’s incredibly early and they’re fluid.

The odds for our first match are probably going to be incredibly even, implying a very similar likelihood between a USA win, a Ghana win, and a draw. So, strap up. We’re not screwed, but it’s an uphill fight.

Photo via


  • Nacho

    Mexico is twice as likely to win the WC as the US!? I seriously doubt it.

  • Anonymous

    Once your odds are that high… I don’t think it really matters how high they are.

  • Arturo Franchesco

    Mexico over the U.S.? Didn’t the U.S. destroy Mexico? Also, I would put Uruguay at more like 10/1…

  • ugdeget

    WHAT CRACK YOU SMOKING HOMIE

    WE ARE WINNING THE FUCKING GROUP

    AND THE CUP TOO WHILE WE ARE AT IT…

    P.S. WE STILL OWE EL TRE A SECOND BRUTAL ASS WHOOPIN FOR ALL THEIR CRAZY SHIT ON US THROUGH THE YEARS

    I HOPE ITS ON THE BIGGEST STAGE THAT IT HAPPENS

    TEACH THEM A BIGGER LESSON THAT WAY

  • ugdeget

    ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF GROUP G PARTICIPANTS

    1. US
    2. PORTUGAL
    3. GERMANY
    4. GHANA


© 2014 SportsGrid, LLC | About Us | Advertise | Newsletter | Jobs | Privacy | User Agreement | Disclaimer | Power Grid FAQ | Contact | Archives | RSS RSS
Dan Abrams, Founder | Power Grid by Sound Strategies | Hosting by Datagram | Sports Statistics Provided By Rotowire