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2014 Brazil World Cup Odds: The USMNT Isn’t Completely Screwed (Well, In The Group Stage Vs. Ghana And Portugal)

  • Matt Rudnitsky

USMNTThe 2014 Brazil World Cup draw, hosted by a tremendously attractive Brazilian model, is over. All of the groups are set.

Now that we know who’s playing who, we can be a bit more precise in calculating the odds that each team wins the World Cup. (Spoiler: Team USA has virtually zero chance of winning it all. But they DO have a chance of advancing through Group G. Scroll down for those odds.)

Here are the latest odds, via BetFair (a European-based sportsbook, because, let’s be honest, you shouldn’t trust Las Vegas’s numbers on soccer):

Brazil: 7/2
Argentina: 5/1
Germany: 6/1
Spain: 8/1

Belgium: 16/1
Colombia: 22/1
France: 24/1
Italy: 29/1
Netherlands: 29/1
England: 29/1
Uruguay: 31/1
Portugal: 39/1

Chile: 59/1

Russia: 89/1

Switzerland: 129/1
Ecuador: 149/1
Mexico: 149/1
Japan: 189/1
Ivory Coast: 189/1
Bosnia: 219/1

Croatia: 279/1
Ghana: 279/1

USA: 299/1

Nigeria: 309/1
Greece: 359/1

South Korea: 519/1

Australia: 809/1

Cameroon: 999/1
Algeria: 999/1
Iran: 999/1
Costa Rica: 999/1
Honduras: 999/1

So, a $100 bet on the USMNT would net you $29,900, or about 2.5-times Brazil’s GDP per capita! (If they won. So, all it will get you is an expensive delusion.) If you strangely think we can win the World Cup, you’re going to be very sad.

The good news: BetFair’s odds suggest that we have a better chance to advance than Ghana, putting us at 85/40 to make it through.

Implied probabilities of advancing through Group G (via BetFair, by my very rough math)

Germany: 93%
Portugal: 67%
USA: 22%
Ghana: 18%

Given that Portugal is assuredly overrated due to name recognition (but Ghana is probably underrated), these seem like mostly fair odds. Though, of course, it’s incredibly early and they’re fluid.

The odds for our first match are probably going to be incredibly even, implying a very similar likelihood between a USA win, a Ghana win, and a draw. So, strap up. We’re not screwed, but it’s an uphill fight.

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