Soccer

Euro 2012 Viewer’s Guide: What You Need To Know When You’re Trapped In A Conversation With Someone From Europe

Now that the group stage is over, Euro 2012 is beginning to come into focus. Here’s what we know so far, and what you need to know if you end up at a bar with some crazy foreigners while Europe’s biggest tournament is on.

Group A: Who Wants it Least?

· In the tournament’s weakest group, the Czech Republic advanced despite having a negative goal differential. They are the first side in Euro history to win their group while being outscored. I am not confident about their chances.

· Greece are also advancing, and they have employed an overwhelmingly defensive-minded strategy. You could easily convince me that that they’re playing a 10-0-0 formation. They are last in the tournament in both shots and shots on target. Not last among sides that have advanced, last among all competitors. (Worse than Ireland even. Sorry Ireland!) Content to beat you with their defense.

· Russia, meanwhile, started the tournament on fire and then stumbled through the rest of the group. The first matches in group play tend to yield draws, but Russia torched the Czech Republic 4-1. They scored one goal the rest of the tournament, while the Czech Republic are advancing. That doesn’t make sense, but again, nothing in this group does.

· The Poles played the role of the proud and overmatched hosts. They didn’t have the talent to keep up in this tournament, but the home fans energized them to draws in their first two matches before a loss to the Czech Republic ended their chances. They didn’t embarrass themselves (good!), which is probably the most anyone can say about them (not as good!).

Group B: Who Survived the Group of Death?

· Germany have won and looked superior in all of their games. Although their biggest concern coming into the tournament was their back line, they’ve only conceded two goals so far. They had significant possession advantages against both Denmark and Portugal, which diminished the importance of their defense. They actually lost the possession battle against the Dutch, but keeping possession didn’t do much for the Dutch in this tournament.

· In fact, nothing really worked for the Dutch. They didn’t play with any semblance of teamwork, which is not a new criticism for them. This tournament was such a disappointment for them after the way they played in the World Cup that even perpetual also-ran Belgium has significantly more optimism about the future of their national team. With the emergence of Belgium’s Golden Generation, could the Dutch soon find themselves looking up at their little neighbor?

· Portugal were impressive and fluid, moving comfortably through the Group of Death. They suffered a 1-0 loss to Germany but still put a lot of pressure on them. They won their other two matches and managed to rip Dutch hearts out in a come-from-behind third match. They are capable of beating every other side in this tournament.

· Denmark were ostensibly the weak link in this group, although they finished ahead of the Netherlands. They were certainly no pushovers, but they didn’t deserve to advance either. Now they’ll have more time to open The Crohn’s Deli, probably in Brooklyn.

Group C: A Moment Of Silence For Ireland

· Spain were the class of the group. Even without David Villa, their system is very difficult to stop. It should come as no surprise that a side predicated on precise interactions between every player on the pitch was not felled by the loss of one player. Spain have looked different without Villa and seemed to be unsure of themselves against Italy, but Fernando Torres has scored twice in his stead. I can’t say I believe in him yet, but at the very least he’s looked competent.

· Italy looked strong from the beginning of the tournament, collecting a 1-1 draw against a confused-looking Spain. They followed that with a 1-1 draw against Croatia before beating Ireland 2-0, as they should have.

· Croatia still play in pajamas. They were the most impressive side to not advance. They were very capable of beating Spain and appeared to have a significant physical advantage over them. Had they been placed in Group A, they would have won it, no matter which side they switched places with.

· In their qualifying group, Ireland’s wins came over Andorra, Armenia, and Macedonia. They then beat Estonia in a playoff. Their inability to compete shouldn’t have come as a surprise. (Again: sorry, Ireland!)

Group D: The Group England Won, I Swear!

· In their third match, a Swedish side that had nothing to play for ended France’s 23-match unbeaten streak. It was a peculiar result, but France still have to be taken seriously.

· Between England’s amazing third goal against Sweden and the goal Ukraine should have been awarded, England had a more magical run through the group stage than any other side. If you include Wayne Rooney’s return and subsequent goal in their third match, it seems like everything is falling into place for them. Expect some misguided soul to call them the “Team of Destiny” in the next few days. Don’t believe it though. They’re good, not great.

· Ukraine were a tough out, and it was amazing to watch national hero Andriy Shevchenko score two goals in their opening win. They would have liked to advanced as hosts, but that moment was special.

· Sweden was quite forgettable, although I did feel abject terror seeing Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s back tattoos.

The knockout rounds are when the tournament really gets fun. Here’s what to expect from the remaining sides.

The Favorites: Germany, Spain

Coming into this tournament, the favorites were Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands. 2 out 3 isn’t bad, right? It is hard to imagine these two powers not meeting in the final. Germany will likely have to go through Greece and then probably Italy, two defensive-minded sides that will have to contend with the formidable German firepower. Spain will have to go through France and then almost certainly Portgual. France is a more unpredictable side, which makes them a greater threat to Spain. Portugal has Cristiano Ronaldo, who is much more of a scorer than anyone Spain has. Spain will probably pass their way through both sides, but not without difficulty.

The Recovering Titans: Italy, France

The last we heard from France, their entire team was mutinying and they were flaming out of the World Cup. Italy also flamed out of the World Cup, and then they came into Euro with a massive match-fixing scandal hanging over their heads. It seems like a very long time ago that these two sides played against each other in the World Cup final, but they appear to have both recovered their form. France had been riding a 23-game unbeaten run, while Italy are simply in form. Both sides are capable of winning the championship, but will likely fall to The Favorites.

Don’t Get Your Hopes Up, Choncho: Portugal, England

Portugal has a tendency to flame out in big games, while the English media always overvalues their country’s chances. These sides also possess the two most talented players in this tournament. On top of that, the late addition of Wayne Rooney means we have less of a sense of what they have to offer than every other side in the knockout rounds. Expect Portugal to tear the Czech Republic apart before falling to Spain. England are unlikely to beat Italy, but if they do they won’t get past Germany.

They Did It Once… Greece

I don’t like watching the Greek team play. They are not pleasant, and they are certainly not as talented as any of the teams above them. They had the miracle run in 2004 though, so I can’t write them off. Perhaps their defense will neutralize Germany’s offense and they’ll get a lucky goal. From there, who knows? More importantly, their quarterfinal match is going to be a referendum on the Euro. That’s a lot of pressure.

You Don’t Look Like Russia: Czech Republic

Again, they had a negative goal differential, and they won their group. That’s never happened at Euro before. They got lucky because their group was soft, but they’re not getting past Portugal. They surrendered two goals to Alan Dzagoev, how can they possibly handle Cristiano Ronaldo? Seriously Czech Republic, get out of here.

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