Welcome to SportsGrid’s new, daily feature, where we tell you what sports are on TV tonight. Then, I do my best to help you win some money while watching. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing, and gambling is legal in your jurisdiction. Feel free to tweet hateful things at me if my advice moves you to do so. TV games are often the toughest games to find an edge on, so don’t go crazy, people. If I do recommend a bet, I’ll keep track of it, so you can tell me how awful (or wonderful?) I am. For record-keeping, we’ll assume a standard bet is $10. Occasionally, there will be 2x or 3x bets, maybe 4 or 5 if I’m feeling spunky. Good luck, America!
Sorry for my absence Monday and Tuesday, I was busy paying money to be sad. Let’s make some of my tear-money back.
NHL: Bruins (-133) at Devils (+124) (7:00 p.m., NHLN)
I wrote up last week’s matchup between these two, and I recommended betting the Devils +177, on the road. The game went as I thought; it was a close, low-scoring game won on a lucky bounce. The Bruins got the bounce so that bet lost, but we won a few bucks overall, due to betting the under. All was well in our wallets.
So, is a 50-cent reduction in price for the Devils fair? It’s a pretty steep jump, near 10% in added implied win probability (~36% to ~45%). Oddsmakers adjusted due to home-ice advantage, the fact that last game was close, and because the Devils are getting near must-win territory in order to make the playoffs.
At first glance, I’d say this is Bruins or nothing. They are the better team, on better form, so you’re probably crazy to back the Devils unless they were big underdogs, which they’re not. Still, I don’t see a reason to bet Boston. They were probably Cup frontrunners at one point, but they’ve (relatively) struggled a bit lately, looking simply very good, not unbeatable. They’re 6-3-1 in their last 10. They’re starting their backup, Anton Khudobin, which gives the Devils a big advantage in net.
I can’t call you crazy for betting a very good team against a team that has lost seven straight, but I can’t recommend Boston at this price.
The under obviously seems appealing, but the price is ridiculous, at -125 for 5 goals. You typically never see that, and I’m not sure it’s worth it. Then again, I just don’t see how either team scores more than three goals, and I will be surprised if that happens. A 3-2 result seems like the worst possible result here. I have to pull the trigger, but don’t go too crazy at this price.
UNDER 5 (-125), $30 to win $24
NBA: Spurs at Nuggets (-3) (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Nuggets are rarely this short of a favorite at home, in the altitude. But the Spurs are rarely an underdog. San Antonio is 5-4 ATS as an underdog. Denver is 24-12 ATS and 35-3 straight up, at home.
You have to like the Nuggets at home, against virtually anyone. The only problem is that Ty Lawson is doubtful (and Danilo Gallinari is out for the season). That gives me pause. There is talk of him playing limited minutes, but nothing is certain. Still, the Nuggets have been fine (3-1 ATS since his last game) without Lawson, so I’ll take my chances. I think the spread is too low, especially against a Spurs team that is on a 3-10 ATS run.
Nuggets -3 (-105), $5 to win $4.76
TV: House Hunters (10:00 p.m., HGTV)
“Quirky Couple Can’t Find Everything They Want in Louisville”
A family of four search for a home in the suburbs of Louisville. Their must-have list includes character, charm and a walkable neighborhood. They also want large rooms, a functional kitchen and a big basement for a model-car display.
The quirky couple doesn’t find character, charm, NOR DO THEY FIND a walkable neighborhood. They are from Louisville; they deserve nothing. (-200), $ 100 to win $50