Welcome to SportsGrid’s new, daily feature, where we tell you what sports are on TV tonight. Then, I do my best to help you win some money while watching. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing, and gambling is legal in your jurisdiction. Feel free to tweet hateful things at me if my advice moves you to do so. TV games are often the toughest games to find an edge on, so don’t go crazy, people. If I do recommend a bet, I’ll keep track of it, so you can tell me how awful (or wonderful?) I am. For record-keeping, we’ll assume a standard bet is $10. Occasionally, there will be 2x or 3x bets, maybe 4 or 5 if I’m feeling spunky. Good luck, America!
I advised betting against America yesterday, and I had an awful day. Communists never win.
NBA: Heat (-6) at Bulls (8:00 p.m., ESPN)
This opened at 5.5. As popular as the Heat are, they’re still 19-16 ATS on the road and the Bulls are just 11-24 ATS at home. The Heat have won 27 in a row; you know this. But they’re 8-9 ATS in their last 17 games; they often win without covering. Six points on the road against a solid team, especially in a relatively low-scoring game, is a lot of points.
You’re probably thinking: the Heat are going to win, why don’t I just bet them straight up? Normally I wouldn’t advise betting the popular road team straight up, but is there any reason to think the Bulls will break the steak? (Other than this video, of course). Joakim Noah is a game-time decision. The moneyline of -245 implies about a 71% chance of a Heat victory, and that seems low. Derrick Rose isn’t playing, you guys. The Bulls aren’t that good.
Sometimes (but not often), the obvious play is the right play. I hope this is one of those times.
Heat ML (-245), $50 to win $20.41
NHL: Canadiens (+160) at Bruins (-170) (7:30 p.m., NBCSN)
These teams are tied for the second-most points in the Eastern Conference, and they’re both very good. Montreal’s Carey Price has probably been slightly better than Boston’s Tuukka Rask, but both are very good. This will be a very good game. The line seems a bit inflated for the Bruins, but a +160 moneyline implies that the Canadiens have about a 40% chance of winning. The teams are exceptionally close in the statistics, so add in home-ice advantage and the line isn’t far off. Maybe slightly skewed towards Boston, but not enough to make a bet.
The obvious bet is the under, because these are two of the best defensive teams in the league with two elite goalies. Montreal’s power play is a threat, but Boston’s penalty kill is otherworldly. Both teams have struggled a bit on the offensive end recently, and aren’t high-scoring teams to begin with. The opening line of under 5 (+129) was juicy. Unfortunately, it’s down to +107, but I still think there’s value. Boston hasn’t had a game go over the total of 5 since March 7.
Montreal is on a back-to-back, but they’ve played well on back-to-backs, losing just once all year. I think betting on the “this game goes to overtime” prop also has value in such a projected low-scoring, close game.
UNDER 5 (+107), $30 to win $32.10 AND GAME GOES TO OVERTIME (+300), $10 to win $30
TV: Survivor: Caramoan – Fans vs. Favorites (8:00 p.m., CBS)
The Bikal tribe continues to struggle in challenges and its members grow increasingly annoyed with Phillip’s attitude. At Gota, Reynold shares some confidential information about his hidden immunity idol that could alter the game.
It turns out the hidden immunity idol is IN THE CLOSET and likes other hidden immunity idols, and that changes the game (+700), $15 to win $105
NHL: Wild ML (-142), $20 to win $14.08
NCAAB: Iowa +4.5 (-105), $5 to win $4.76 AND ML (+175), $0.75 to win $1.31
Record in games actually worth risking money on: 85-64 (+$94.53)
What else is on:
COLLEGE MEN’S BASKETBALL
7 p.m. | ESPN2
Iowa at Virginia
8 p.m. | ESPNU
BYU at Southern Mississippi
9 p.m. | ESPN2
Providence at Baylor
10:30 p.m. | ESPN
Brooklyn at Portland
Lines taken from 5dimes.eu (with reduced juice) and betonline.ag
Photo via Mail.com