Welcome to SportsGrid’s new, daily feature, where we tell you what sports are on TV tonight. Then, I do my best to help you win some money while watching. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing, and gambling is legal in your jurisdiction. Feel free to tweet hateful things at me if my advice moves you to do so. TV games are often the toughest games to find an edge on, so don’t go crazy, people. If I do recommend a bet, I’ll keep track of it, so you can tell me how awful (or wonderful?) I am. For record-keeping, we’ll assume a standard bet is $10. Occasionally, there will be 2x or 3x bets, maybe 4 or 5 if I’m feeling spunky. Good luck, America!
We’re on a roll, doods. Let’s keep it going.
NBA Playoffs: Knicks at Celtics (-3) (8:00 p.m., ESPN)
The Knicks were favored by 7.5 and 6.5 in the first two games. They won both, but only covered in the second. The first game, they missed a cover by half a point. The teams have played two games in Boston this year, and the Knicks won both games, outright. Obviously, bookmakers are considering the Celtics a different team in the playoffs than the regular season. I don’t really buy that, and I don’t buy the fact that NYK won the last game in Boston by 15, as one-point favorites, and this line is 4 points in Boston’s favor.
Still, a -1 to +3 move isn’t that steep in basketball, especially when you account for Boston’s desperation. The Celtics were 27-13 at home this year. I think there’s a tiny bit of line value on the Knicks, but I’m not confident that they’ll win, at all. Whip out your pennies, America. It’s minuscule bet time!
Knicks +3 (-105), $2.50 to win $2.38
NBA Playoffs: Spurs (-3) at Lakers (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
This line was dumb, and it has since moved to -5.5. I think you should all bet it at that number, if that’s the best you’ve got. I bet it right away, because the number was so dumb. I used the -149 moneyline, because when I step out on a bet like this, I want to be extra safe. No backdoor covers or any of that bukkake. The Lakers will likely be starting Darius Morris and (this year’s) D-League MVP Andrew Goudelock. Morris provided me many great memories at Michigan, and now he will hopefully fill my wallet.
Spurs ML (-149), $50 to win $33.56
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets (-1) at Warriors (10:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Stephen Curry should play despite a tweaked ankle. David Lee is out for the season (as is Danilo Gallinari). I’m not really sure what to think here. I lean towards the Warriors, only because the Nuggets were just 19-22 at home. I think they’re overvalued because they’re so good at home (38-3). Actually, I like the Warriors a tiny bit. And the over. Nothing crazy here, though. This is the NBA, and it’s not betting against the Lakers.
Warriors +1 (-102), $2.50 to win $2.45 AND OVER 210 (-108), $2.5 to win $2.31
NHL: Flames (+220) at Blackhawks (-240) (8:00 p.m., NBCSN)
The Blackhawks clinched the President’s trophy, so this game is meaningless. The Flames can’t make the playoffs. They are starting Joey MacDonald, who is among the worst goalies in the league. There’s no reason to bet either team. The Blackhawks should win, but they might not care enough. The over is worth a look, assuming MacDonald awfulness and Chicago defensive indifference, but I’m not confident enough to make a play.
Pass, lean OVER 5.5
None, enjoy the playoffs.
Record in games actually worth risking money on: 140-98 (+$237.19)
What else is on:
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
7 p.m. | MLB Network
Atlanta at Detroit or Toronto at New York Yankees
7 p.m. | WGN
Chicago Cubs at Miami
6:30 p.m. | ESPN/ESPN2 and NFL Network
Draft, Rounds 2-3, in New York
Lines taken from 5dimes.eu (with reduced juice) and betonline.ag