Friday, July 10th Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Betting Guide
Watch out for the weather on this slate as only the Heroes/Tigers game is looking fully in the clear early in the day.
This chart shows how tonight’s probable pitchers have fared specifically in the KBO since the start of the 2018 season (including their 2020 stats) and the FanDuel Sportsbook betting lines for each game (along with implied team totals):
NC Dinos @ LG Twins
Chan Gyu Lim (LG) will toe the mound for the Twins on Friday morning following a very average start for him versus the Lions last time out. Although Lim was able to induce grounders at a 2:1 ratio to fly balls in that outing, he allowed four-plus runs for the fifth time in eighth starts. If nothing else, Lim has always been prone to the long ball, having allowed a 1.21 HR/9 rate since the start of 2018 and a 0.99 HR/9 rate this year specifically. Zero teams have proven to be more powerful than the Dinos to this point so the matchup is a difficult one for sure. Having said that, Lim still possesses the ability to miss bats (22.8-percent K rate), and his 1.31 WHIP ranks 16th amongst qualified starters. This is no walk in the park for the Dinos but a strong strikeout performance is also possible for Lim versus a team that strikes out at about the league-average rate (17.1-percent).
As for the Twins, they will do battle with Drew Rucinski (NCD) after getting shut down by Raul Alcantara (DOO) last night. In other words, for the second straight night, the team will be forced to take on one of the most talented pitchers in the league. Rucinski ranks top 10 in FIP and has struck out opponents at a 22.7-percent rate in 2020 alone. Amongst starting pitchers on this slate, his .280 wOBA and 0.087 ISO allowed since the start of 2018 tops them all. Whenever betting the Dinos, the key is to overcome their awful bullpen, which ranks dead last in the league in ERA (6.60). Odds-makers have not built in that risk which makes -190 a bit tough to lay. Instead, respect the talents of both pitchers, and take the under instead.
NC Dinos/LG Twins Under 9.5-Runs -128, 1U
Doosan Bears @ Lotte Giants
Other than Dan Straily (LOT) and sometimes Adrian Sampson (LOT), the Giants rotation is generally unreliable, with Jun Won Seo (LOT) arguably being the most unreliable of the bunch. Four starters on the Giants have thrown enough innings to be qualified and, despite the fact three of them own a FIP over 5.00, Seo’s 5.80 FIP ranks worst of the bunch. Only two qualified starters have produced a lower K rate than Seo this season and only three sport a HR/9 rate higher than his. Of course, the Bears are the toughest team in the league to strike out, which means Seo will be relying on contact to register outs. Good luck.
Is it even possible for a pitcher to let fantasy players and bettors down in a more epic fashion than Chris Flexen (DOO) did in his last start? Facing a league-worst Eagles offense, Flexen was blasted to the tune of 11 baserunners and six earned runs (ERs) in just four innings. Once again, the betting market is approaching Flexen as if he is a true ace even though he has allowed at least three ERs in four of his past five starts. Beyond Flexen, the Bears bullpen ranks just seventh in ERA, so laying -186 is solely a testament to their offense. Of all the games, this is the lowest priority game for me, and one of the many that could deal with weather issues.
Doosan Bears -186 ML, 1U
SK Wyverns @ Hanwha Eagles
What a strange game tonight between the two teams with the worst records in the KBO. Starting with the Wyverns offense, Min Woo Kim (HAN) is the task at hand, and he is a pitcher that has allowed a massive 1.41 HR/9 rate over the course of his last 217.2 IP. The Wyverns are not exactly a team oozing with power (third to last in HR/9 rate) but Kim’s numbers are pretty gnarly across the board: 5.55 FIP, .365 wOBA, 0.167 ISO and a near double-digit K rate (over a two-plus year span). Jeong Choi (SK) specifically would on red-alert to go deep but he was just placed on the injured list…and that is before even mentioning the Eagles bullpen’s 5.80 ERA. Without their top bat in the lineup, the Wyverns are impossible to back.
Wyverns probable starter Joo Han Kim (SK) threw a season-high 98-pitches in his latest start and his overall numbers are borderline worst pitcher in the league worthy. To be fair, the sample size is tiny on Kim over his last two-plus seasons, but he has walked more batters than he has struck out during that time and has been burned for a slate-worst .386 wOBA. 2017 was actually his largest sample size season and his numbers that season were straight up bad as well: 5.94 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and a 45:32 K/BB ratio in 69.2 IP. Seeing the Eagles favored is a rare occurrence, and bettors snap reaction should be to bet the other side of the game, but that is not so simple tonight against a pitcher with a 6.00 FIP over a 24 appearance sample. If forced to choose a side here, the Eagles somehow, someway feel like the logical play.
SK Wyverns/Hanwha Eagles Over 9.5-Runs -110, 2U
Hanwha Eagles ML -134, 1U
Samsung Lions @ KT Wiz
Sans Tyler Saladino (SAM), the Lions are missing one of their top bats in the split versus right-handed pitching (RHP), and the Wiz are tossing one of the best few pitchers they have to offer: William Cuevas (KTW). Of course, that is not saying much considering Cuevas owns a 4.62 FIP, 0.94 HR/9 rate and just 17.2-percent K rate in 48.0 innings this year. Luckily for him, the Lions offense is average in every way even with Saladino, so without him the team relies on Ja Wook Koo (SAM) a bunch of all-or-nothing power guys. Cuevas’ .296 wOBA allowed ranks amongst the best of the starters slated to pitch tonight so he should be in good shape to hold down the fort.
In five starts, Yoon Dong Heo (SAM) has walked opposing hitters at an absurd 13.4-percent rate and his 6.18 FIP easily ranks last amongst all pitchers on the slate. Only 11 pitchers (min. 20 IP) have struggled to a FIP over 6.00 and Heo’s -3.6-percent K-BB rate is second worst amongst the entire group of pitchers with a 20-plus inning sample. Oh by the way, Heo is extremely susceptible to power (1.08 HR/9 rate, .368 wOBA allowed), so this Wiz lineup is likely going to rip him to shreds. Mel Rojas Jr. (KTW) is one of the best hitters in the entire league in the split and all the other righties in this split are primed to succeed as well.
KT Wiz ML -170, 2U
Kiwoom Heroes @ Kia Tigers
The final matchup of the night is one between two very ample pitchers: Won Tae Choi (KIW) and Hyun Jong Yang (KIA). Once again, last night showed that the Heroes are a superior hitting team against RHP, especially with Dong Won Park (KIW) struggling (and looking like he is playing through injury). In his first at-bat (AB) last night, replays showed Park hobbling to first base, and that would explain why he is two for his last 22. Most of the Tigers top bats own the platoon edge versus Choi and that is really the only differentiating factor in a game that has moved to a virtual toss-up. Yang is the superior pitcher of the two and Preston Tucker (KIA) has homered in two of the last three so Tigers bettors should be feeling good here.
Kia Tigers ML -110, 1U