AccuScore: NCAA Football Game Preview Baylor vs No. 11 Oklahoma
We’ve got another must-watch fixture in the Big 12 this weekend as No. 11 Oklahoma gets set to host Baylor this Saturday night. Oklahoma defeated Baylor twice last season.
Let’s look at where the value is at in this one.
Odds (via FanDuel)
• Baylor: +820
• Oklahoma: -1600
• Baylor +21.5: -110
• Oklahoma -21.5: -110
• Over 62.5: -106
• Under 62.5: -114
Key Points to Consider
Offense: Baylor does hit the road this weekend with some momentum as they finally got back on the win column last week vs Kansas State. They had lost five straight prior to that. Baylor’s defense is their calling card. Their No. 15-ranked pass defense will need to be in prime form to contain a hot Sooners offense.
Defense: Oklahoma looks for its sixth straight win this weekend as they’re led by freshman Spencer Rattler and a potent offense. Despite their offense getting more of the attention, it’s actually their defense that’s been performing above-average as of late. In their last four games, Oklahoma hasn’t given up more than 28 points. On average for the season, they’re holding opponents to 23 points per game.
ATS vs Sim Data: Oklahoma covers the spread in 57.3% of simulations, compared to the 52.3% chance the -110 odds indicate. That probability, however, does go against recent trends. Baylor is 8-2 covering the spread vs Oklahoma in their last 10 road matchups vs the Sooners.
Projected QB Stats
For Baylor, Charlie Brewer is projected to finish with 287 passing yards on 22 completions, along with 35 rushing yards on 13 carries. He averages 1.7 TDs and 0.4 INTs per sim.
For Oklahoma, Spencer Rattler is projected to finish with 313 passing yards on 21 completions, along with 95 rushing yards on 16 carries. He averages 5.3 TDs and 0.3 INTs per sim.
Three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. Average total combined score in simulations is 81.7 points. The OVER hits in ~83% of simulations.
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