Betting Guide for UFC 256
The bad news: Pullouts have whittled down this card down to 10 fights.
The good news: The 10 fights left are all filled with big names and should be action packed.
The flyweight title is on the line in the main event, just three weeks after Deiveson Figueiredo last defended it and Brandon Moreno cemented himself as the number-one contender. And the co-main is big enough for many people to be even more excited for it than the headliner, as Tony Ferguson looks to rebound from his first loss since 2012 against Charles Oliveira, who comes in with a seven-fight win streak.
This card features big names as well as surging newcomers, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to make.
Deiveson Figueiredo (-330) vs. Brandon Moreno (+265)
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (+108)
Figueiredo has emerged as one of the more dominant champions currently in the UFC, winning each of his three title fights inside two rounds. Now he will likely get his toughest test against Moreno, who is coming off of a first-round TKO over Brandon Royval. Moreno will be the first opponent to have both a height and reach advantage over Figueiredo since Figueiredo’s UFC debut against Marco Beltran back in 2017. And earlier this year, Moreno claimed a decision victory over Jussier Formiga, who handed Figueiredo his lone UFC defeat in March of 2019.
Of course, that’s not enough to overshadow just how impressive Figueiredo has looked recently. And he holds a few sizable advantages over Moreno, such as a 20% advantage in striking accuracy and attempting 2.2 more submissions per 15 minutes. The champion is the rightful favorite in this one, but the -330 line is a bit much for betting purposes.
One key statistic is that Moreno has never been finished as a professional. All five of his pro losses have come via decision, and this is a five-round fight. So the smart money here is on this fight lasting more than 2.5 rounds.
Tony Ferguson (-174) vs. Charles Oliveira (+146)
Oliveira Moneyline (+146)
Ferguson took on a big risk by accepting the fight against Justin Gaethje in May, and he should be commended for it. Unfortunately for him, he also absorbed a whopping 143 significant strikes and was stopped by TKO in the fifth round. On the flip side, Oliveira has absorbed a total of just 120 significant strikes over the length of his current seven-fight win streak, spanning over the past three years.
Oliveira’s past 14 fights have all ended inside the distance, and he currently owns the UFC record for most submission wins (14) and is tied for the most finishes in company history (16). Ferguson has followed a similar path, with just two of his past 10 fights going to a decision. So it’s no surprise to see this fight priced at -260 to not go the distance.
Ferguson is the more active fighter in the striking department, landing an average of 2.53 more significant strikes per minute than Oliveira does. It is Oliveira who holds a six percentage-point edge in striking accuracy, but Ferguson has fought the much higher level of competition. Oliveira’s strength is on the ground, as he averages 2.12 more takedowns landed and 1.6 more submission attempts per 15 minutes than Ferguson.
Perhaps Ferguson will be reignited from his recent loss. But against a fighter five years his younger who is coming in virtually unscathed in recent years, it’s hard not to wonder whether Ferguson is damaged goods. With the value on his side, Oliveira is the bet to make in this fight.
Ronaldo Souza (-124) vs. Kevin Holland (+106)
Souza Moneyline (-124)
With a win on Saturday, Kevin Holland will become the lone UFC fighter to hold a 5-0 record for the year 2020. He has been on a storm this year, picking up all four of his wins inside the distance while dealing with constant rescheduled fights and opponent changes. In this one, he will be 13 years younger than his opponent and will hold a two-inch height and nine-inch reach advantage. But keep in mind, that opponent is Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, who lost a split decision to Jan Blachowicz — the current light heavyweight champion — in his most recent fight. (Split decision meaning one of the judges scored Souza as the winner of that fight.)
Holland averages 2.14 more significant strikes landed per minute, with an accuracy rate 10 percentage points higher, but Souza has been finished by strikes just once in his seven-year UFC career. And the ground is Souza’s world, as he averages 2.25 more takedowns landed and 0.6 more submission attempts per 15 minutes than Holland does.
Holland’s four opponents on his current win streak have combined for just an 8-10-1 UFC record, and it remains to be seen whether he can pick up a win over a fighter of Souza’s pedigree. The 5-0 storyline would be a great one to end the year, but the advantage in this fight lies with the veteran Souza.