Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 11/7/20
This week’s headliners already took a bit of a hit earlier this week when Dana White announced that Israel Adesanya would fight Jan Blachowicz next for the light heavyweight title. Prior to that, this week’s light heavyweight bout was widely viewed as having the number-one contender spot on the line. Of course things are constantly changing in the UFC landscape, and an impressive win here could catapult either Thiago Santos or Glover Teixeira into a title shot. So there is still plenty on the line with these fighters coming in with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more
Let’s take a look at the best bets to make.
Thiago Santos (-260) vs. Glover Teixeira (+205)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-136)
Santos returns to the octagon for the first time since dropping a split decision loss to the champion Jon Jones in July 2019. Many people still view him as the winner of that fight, and even more suggest that he would have won if he didn’t tear all of the major ligaments in his knee mid-fight. That fight ended Santos’ four-fight win streak, which included a third-round TKO victory over the current champion, Jan Blachowicz.
Teixeira is currently riding a four-fight win streak of his own but has not fought the champion caliber of opponent that Santos has in his recent fights. His most recent win came over Anthony Smith, who gassed early on and has now lost three of his past four fights.
The stats match up fairly evenly in this one, with Santos throwing with slightly more volume and landing 0.7 more significant strikes per minute than Teixeira. The advantage on the ground goes to Teixeira, who lands an average of 1.04 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Santos, but Teixeira has a low takedown accuracy rate of just 38%.
The advantage here goes to Santos, although we don’t know how he will look coming back from an injury and the subsequent long layoff. What we do know is that he has gone into the second round in five straight fights, and Teixeira’s only UFC loss inside of two rounds came at the hands of the powerful Anthony Johnson. Rather than chasing a finish from Santos at -140, the value bet in this one is for the fight to go over 1.5 rounds at -136.
Brendan Allen (-110) vs. Ian Heinisch (-110)
Allen to Win (-110)
From the veterans, we move down to a matchup between two guys with a combined eight UFC fights. Brendan Allen will have a three-inch advantage in both height and reach while also being the younger fighter by seven years.
Ian Heinisch has a wrestling background, but he has converted on just 19% of his takedowns in the UFC and will be at a disadvantage should this fight go to the ground against Allen, who averages 2.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Heinisch started his UFC run with two quality wins but has dropped two of his three fights since then. His only win in that span came against the struggling Gerald Meerschaert, who has lost five of his past seven fights.
Allen is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC so far and has shown off his well-rounded ability by picking up a win by submission, TKO, and decision already. Despite Heinisch being the older and more experienced UFC fighter, this fight actually looks like a step up in competition for him. At even odds, the bet to make in this fight is on Allen at -110.
Yan Xiaonan (-154) vs. Claudia Gadelha (+126)
Xiaonan by Points (+100)
This is a very high level matchup, with the winner likely to contend for the strawweight belt in her next fight. To start off, this fight is very likely to go to a decision. It is priced at -250 to go the distance, and the two fighters have done so in 15 of their 16 combined UFC appearances.
Claudia Gadelha has fought all of the top competition in the UFC, with her only losses coming to two former champions and Nina Ansaroff. But she has fought lighter competition recently, and many people believe she actually lost her lost bout to Angela Hill, when she was out-struck 90-84 and knocked down once. In comparison, Yan Xiaonan out-struck Hill 94-71 in her own victory.
The grappling advantage goes to Gadelha, who lands an average of 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Xiaonan does carry an impressive 70% takedown defense rate. On the feet, Xiaonan lands a very impressive 6.72 significant strikes per mintue, compared to 3.40 for Gadelha. Xiaonan will need to avoid being held down by Gadelha, but with more than double the striking output, she is in great position to take this fight by points at an even +100.