College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/2/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
LT to cover +24.5: 2 Stars out of 5
BYU is off to a dominant 2-0 start to the season with blowout 52- and 41-point wins over Navy and Troy. The Cougars have 751 yards in the air and 493 yards on the ground over these first two games, while their defense has given up only 10 points over their first eight quarters of football.
On the other side, Louisiana Tech is also 2-0, although one of their wins was against an FCS side in Houston Baptist. Even so, La Tech has scored 97 points in just two games this year, so it seems unlikely that BYU will totally shut them down.
BYU’s hot start is surprising considering they finished just 7-6 last year with zero wins of 40-plus points. Our models certainly like BYU in this game, giving them a 93.9% win probability, but the 24.5-point spread is immense. We project BYU to win this game somewhat easily (39.50-19.93 projected score), but we still give them just a 40.42% chance to cover the spread.
Louisiana Tech has a good enough team to at least keep it relatively close with BYU, and that’s why we like them to cover as a two-star bet.