College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/9/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Over 63.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Louisville -4.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Louisville Moneyline (-210): 5 Stars out of 5
Louisville is off to a mediocre 1-2 start to the season, but the Cardinals have proved they can at least put points on the scoreboard. Louisville is averaging 29.7 points per game on the young season, including a 34-point outburst against the current seventh-ranked team in the country, the Miami Hurricanes.
Quarterback Malik Cunningham has thrown for over 250 yards per game, while the top two running backs, Javian Hawkins and Hassan Hall, are both averaging over 5 yards per carry. With Georgia Tech allowing 270 pass yards per game and 172 rushing yards per game, it seems that Louisville should be able to hit their yearly averages or even surpass them.
Georgia Tech played well and earned a win week one against a struggling Florida State team, but they have since lost back-to-back games to Central Florida and Syracuse. The losses were by a combined 45 points, and the Yellow Jackets conceded 86 points in these defeats, so they are looking for a bounce-back performance.
Our projections anticipate a high-scoring game, with a predicted final score of Louisville 38.41-Georgia Tech 27.85. This would get us above 66 points total, which is comfortably over the 63.5 points betting line. We give the over a 59.41% chance of hitting.
Our models also have Louisville winning by over 10 points, and we give them a 81.4% chance to win outright. Louisville -4.5 and/or the Louisville moneyline (-210) are both strong bets to pair with the over.