College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/27/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Texas -1.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Texas is having a very good season and are only a couple of plays away from being undefeated. The Longhorns are 5-2 to start the year, including an impressive overtime win against Oklahoma State, who our algorithm ranks 19th in the nation. Texas, ranked ninth by our algorithm, also comes in with a week off after their game last week against Kansas was postponed.
Iowa State is also having a strong season at 6-2, and they are actually ahead of Texas in the polls. However, our algorithm ranks them 11th, two spots behind the Longhorns. Plus, Iowa State lost to Louisiana-Lafayette early this season, which is a major blemish that Texas’s resume does not have.
We project Texas to win this game 29.98-26.30 in what should be an exciting game. We give the Longhorns a 58.08% chance to cover the 1.5-point spread, making this a 2-star bet for Friday.
Iowa -13.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Iowa lost their opening two games this season to strong opponents in Purdue and Northwestern, but they have been completely dominant over the last three weeks and currently rank 10th in numberFire’s power rankings. The Hawkeyes destroyed Michigan State 49-7, beat Minnesota 35-7, and then routed Penn State 41-21 to cap off their current three-game winning streak.
On the flip side, Nebraska (85th in our power rankings) has been underwhelming to say the least. The Cornhuskers did beat a winless Penn State team, but they are 1-3 overall, including a 41-23 blowout loss at the hands of Illinois last weekend.
We project Iowa to win this game very easily, with a projected final score of 34.90-15.70. Our models give Iowa a 68.69% chance to cover despite the 2-touchdown betting line.
North Carolina +4.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Notre Dame has had a perfect season so far, and they are right in the thick of the College Football Playoff hunt. The Fighting Irish played a close 12-7 game in their win over Louisville, and it took overtime for them to prevail over Clemson. However, every other victory has been by at least two scores. There is no doubt that the Fighting Irish are legit, and they are sixth in numberFire’s power rankings.
North Carolina (14th in our ranks) are having a strong season in their own right, getting off to an impressive 6-2 start. Both Tar Heels losses came by only 3 points, and they have scored at least 26 points in every game this season, so Notre Dame’s defense will certainly be challenged.
Unsurprisingly, our models project a high-scoring game with Notre Dame getting the slight edge at 37.55-34.24. We give the Tar Heels a 57.26% likelihood to cover the 4.5-point spread, so they could prove to be a major obstacle in Notre Dame’s path to the playoff.