College Football Betting Guide: Saturday 11/7/20
This week has the best slate of matchups yet, even with Trevor Lawrence sidelined against Notre Dame. Clemson battles the Irish to keep their playoff hopes alive and Georgia and Florida face off for what will likely be a berth to face Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Unfortunately, those games are too close to call as our model has a pick for neither. However, there are still plenty of crucial matchups this week, and our model sees great betting value on two in particular.
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110-spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you are seeing the most updated information.
Indiana +2.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5
After an impressive performance at Minnesota two weeks ago, Michigan laid an egg against rival Michigan State, blowing a game in which they were favored by around three touchdowns. The Wolverines’ inconsistent play makes their games difficult to predict, and Michigan almost dropped out of the rankings last week after the loss to the Spartans.
Indiana hasn’t played as well as their record might indicate (see the box score against Penn State), but as a team that deserves to be at their current AP rank of 13th, it’s hard to see why they’re getting points in this situation.
This game also seems to be a case of sharps vs. squares, where the professional bettors have sided against the public. It appears as though there is sharp money on the Hoosiers, since the line opened at 3.5 (at FanDuel Sportsbook) and fell to the current line of 2.5 despite 74% of the bets and 86% of the money bet on Michigan, according to oddsFire. This case of reverse line movement suggests that bookmakers may be overrating Michigan after last week’s lackluster performance.
Our model loves Indiana to cover with a probability of 71.48%, and many sportsbooks are still offering 3.0 points instead of 2.5. Ultimately, while the inconsistent play from Michigan and Indiana’s miracle against Penn State make it difficult to know how good these teams truly are, there isn’t a major case to be made that one team is substantially better than the other. Thus, bettors should roll with the Hoosiers and take the points.
Texas -6.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Texas has had a disappointing season so far with losses to Oklahoma and TCU, but they just got back in the AP Poll at 22nd this week after a major victory at Oklahoma State. Recovering all five fumbles in the game against the Cowboys helped, but the Longhorns managed to score on the Big 12’s best defense, according to SP+.
Quarterback Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns face another good defense in West Virginia at home this week. The Mountaineers have some momentum coming off a win over 16th-ranked Kansas State, but their two losses came against teams that Texas beat (Oklahoma State and Texas Tech). West Virginia just isn’t as talented as Texas, evident by the Longhorns’ five preseason all-Big 12 players to the Mountaineers’ one. Texas has played down to their competition before, like in their loss to TCU, but after last week, they seem determined to save their season.
Texas backers are on the right side of key number 7 if they can manage to get the current 6.5-point spread; check oddsFire for the best prices at a number of popular sportsbooks. Our model gives the Longhorns a 68.25% probability to cover one touchdown against West Virginia, and as long as they continue to fire on all cylinders, it should be an easy cover for Texas.