College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/5/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Under 56.5: 1 Star out of 5
This game figures to be a mismatch in favor of Nevada. The Wolf Pack have won their opening two games of the season, including a 37-19 win over UNLV last week, while Utah State has gone 0-2 and been outscored by a total of 80-20.
Utah State has struggled offensively, and both of their opening games have finished under this 56.5-point total. Utah State has thrown for 204 passing yards combined in two games, and while we have them at an uptick of 210 projected passing yards on Thursday, that still won’t be enough to put up major points.
Our models project a final score of 34.81-19.16 in favor of Nevada, putting us at 53.97 total projected points. We project this will be close to the listed total, so we have just a 55.6% likelihood of the under hitting, making it a 1-star bet for Thursday.
Over 52.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Wyoming is off to a 1-1 start, and they have had success offensively, scoring 37 and 31 points in their opening two games. They will be facing a Colorado State defense that gave up 38 points to Fresno State in their season opener, so they have a chance to put up a big number on Thursday. We project Wyoming to score 35.02 points, meaning Colorado State needs only a mediocre offensive performance for the over to hit.
Colorado State averaged 28.1 points per game last season, but they scored just 17 in their opener. The good news for the Rams is that they did move the football, compiling 372 yards and 21 first downs. The Rams may not be world beaters, but they are far from inept. We project them to score 26.41 points in this contest, putting us at 61.43 total points for the game.
We give the over a 74.14% likelihood of hitting, making it a 5-star bet for Thursday night.