College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 12/10/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Florida Atlantic -8.5: 1 Star out of 5
Florida Atlantic is off to a good start this season at 5-2 (4-1 in conference games). The Owls have been fairly convincing in the majority of their wins, as they have won three games by 19 points or more. Florida Atlantic boasts the second-best scoring defense in all of college football, averaging only 12.4 points allowed per contest.
On the flip side, Southern Mississippi is not having a great season at 2-7 with a 1-4 record in conference. Four of the Golden Eagles’ seven losses have come by at least 11 points, so they have a propensity to get blown out, especially against superior teams.
Our models predict the Florida Atlantic defense to be dominant once again, winning by a final score of 26.31-14.74. We give the Owls a 54.87% chance to cover, making it a one-star betting opportunity.
Pitt -6.5: 1 Star out of 5
Georgia Tech is having a somewhat bizarre season, having won opening week against Florida State, winning by 19 and 23 against Louisville and Duke, and then losing each of their other six games by at least 10 points. Their scoring defense is ranked in the bottom 20 of FBS, as they are conceding 37.1 points per game, so it’s easy to see how they have been so susceptible to blowouts.
Pittsburgh has been outmatched by the top teams in the league, losing by double-digits against all three ranked opponents they faced, but they have been good against the bad and mediocre teams on their schedule. The Panthers are 5-2 against non-ranked opponents, and their two losses each came by only a single point.
Our models predict Pitt to win by a final of 30.37-20.36, and we give them a 53.25% chance to cover the 6.5-point betting line.