Davis Mattek’s Week Two NFL Best Bets
Davis Mattek’s Week Two NFL Best Bets
After amassing a 36-26-1 record against the spread last season on RotoExperts, I am back to break down more of my favorite NFL sports bets this year on SportsGrid. As always, beating NFL lines is one of the more difficult tasks that a sports bettor can undertake as NFL games are the most bet-on events in the world and the lines are incredibly efficient. If we are able to churn out a profit and have some fun in the process, then we can consider it a battle well fought.
We started off well in Week One with the Ravens blowing out the Cleveland Browns and the Arizona Cardinals not only covering but winning outright against the 49ers. The Colts were just as bad as the Cardinals were good, however, which dropped us to 2-1 for the week.
WEEK ONE NFL SPORTS BETTING PICKS
BALTIMORE RAVENS -7.5 OVER HOUSTON TEXANS
As I said last week” I like to focus on when betting NFL games is not getting too caught up on minute details when dealing with ethereal talents like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.” Until the Baltimore Ravens let me down against mediocre teams, I do not really care what the point spread is. To get burnt betting these big spreads, you are going to be the victim of a backdoor cover. The Browns did not have one minute of being competitive against the Ravens and we were not one iota concerned about their ability to blow Cleveland out.
The Texans have already had their chance to shine against an actual NFL team this season and just as their season ended in 2019, they proved that they are not capable of competing against the upper echelon teams in the NFL. The Ravens gained 6.6 yards per play (including garbage time) against the Browns last week while the Texans, playing against infinite prevent defenses, were only able to muster up 6.2 yards per play.
As much as we love DeShaun Watson, the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and the lack of an offensive line have just left him with too much to do. A great QB can paper over a lot of cracks but he can’t paper over a lack of weapons (other than Will Fuller), an aging defense and no offensive line. Let’s ride Baltimore until they show that they are something other than the second-best team in the NFL.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 OVER LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Pardon my french, but Tyrod Taylor sucks. The Chargers struggled to score 16 points against a Bengals defense that gave up 215 rushing yards to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt while making Baker Mayfield look like he was playing against a Big 12 defense. The last time that Tyrod averaged over seven yards per passing attempt in a season was 2015. What has made Tyrod desirable to coaches makes him the worst possible QB against the Chiefs: he plays it safe and never turns the ball over. To beat the Chiefs, you have to be willing to go for it on every 4th down, push the ball down the field and force throws into tight windows.
None of that is going to happen on Sunday when the Chargers play against the Chiefs. Anthony Lynn and his boys are going to play for the friendliest loss and try to run the air out of the ball so the Chiefs only win by two touchdowns instead of three; not because the Chargers are two touchdowns worse than the Chiefs but just because the clock ran out of time. Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, and he didn’t even get out of first gear while throwing for three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Texans last Thursday night. Much like the Ravens, until Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes give me some reason to not believe, I will be betting on them.
BUFFALO BILLS -5.5 OVER MIAMI DOLPHINS
Outside of the Baltimore and Kansas City games, it was hard to find a great spot. The Saints favored against the Raiders seem okay but road favorites are a weird spot this early in the season as we are still trying to figure out what home field advantage means with no fans. The Patriots are another team that looks appealing as a “live dog” but if the Seahawks are going to throw it 65% of the time, I have no interest in betting against them. That brings us to the Bills, having us eat some more chalk as very heavy favorites.
Much like the Seahawks, actually, the Bills took a super aggressive approach into their Week One game against the Jets. In a game that the Bills were leading comfortably the entire way, Josh Allen threw the ball 46 (!!!!!) times and ran the ball 14 times. The team lives and dies by his decisions and against the Jets, he mostly made the correct ones. Now, against a Dolphins team that is just lingering around until Tua and his hip are ready for live action, we are taking a small chance on the Bills as a road favorite (something I just outlined above makes me a small bit uncomfortable). This is mostly about believing in the Bills coaching staff and thinking the Dolphins are not quite ready to start winning games.