NFL Futures: 2019 Regular Season Win Totals
NFL Futures: 2019 NFL Regular Season Win Totals
Nearly two decades after their first Super Bowl run, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick remain atop the NFL pecking order. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the New England Patriots have the most projected regular season wins at 11 with -140 juice on the over. The Patriots have won at least 11 games in every season since 2010 and have achieved double-digit victories in every season since 2002.
The LA Rams, New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs sit behind New England with 10.5 projected wins in the 2019-20 season. All three teams are priced at +120 on the over and -140 on the under. The Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles have each been bet up from their opening number of 9.5 wins to ten.
The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins share the recognition for fewest projected wins at five. Some money has come in on the Cardinals, however. After opening at -110 each way, over five wins is now priced at -125.
Some other notable teams include: The Cleveland Browns sit at nine projected wins for next season. The Browns have not reached .500 since 2007 and have eclipsed nine wins only once since 1994. The LA Chargers sit at 9.5 wins (-140 on the over) in their quest to overthrow the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. And finally, the Buffalo Bills have been bet up from their opening number of 6.5 wins to seven.
One of my favorite bets on the board at the moment is the Cincinnati Bengals under six wins at even-money. Injuries ruined the Bengals’ season last year with Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert all missing significant time. But I am not overly optimistic that Cincinnati can turn the ship around in 2018-19. The Bengals won six games last season, but were out-gained in five of those victories.
The NFL schedule makers certainly didn’t do Cincinnati any favors at the beginning of the 2019-20 season. The Bengals will only play three home games in the first nine weeks of the season, with road trips to Seattle, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and London to play the LA Rams. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bengals are projected to play the league’s toughest schedule against opponents’ passing defense and the league’s fifth-toughest schedule against overall defensive efficiency.
Much like last season, the biggest cause for concern in Cincinnati is depth. Eifert, Green and Joe Mixon are fantastic talents, but what do the Bengals have behind them? Eifert hasn't played a full 16-game schedule in his six-year career and has started just five games in the last three seasons. Green missed six games in 2016 and eight games last season. After averaging nine touchdowns per season over the first five years of his career, Green averaged six trips to the endzone over the last three. First-round draft pick Jonah Williams has already been ruled out for the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last week.
First-year head coach Zac Taylor is likely to have his hands full in a very competitive AFC North. If the Bengals do struggle with that early slate and are knocked out of contention, Coach Taylor may look to rookie quarterback Ryan Finley. In my opinion, a 5-11 finish in Cincinnati is more likely than 7-9. I’ve got my eye on under six regular season wins for the Bengals.
The online market odds are also listed below and PointsBet generally seems to be offering better odds on UNDER bets while Fanduel seems to be offering slightly better odds on OVER bets.
Fanduel Sportsbook and PointsBet Sportsbook NFL Regular Season Win Totals as of 7/3/2019
Westgate Superbook Regular Season Win Totals
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