NFL Futures: Each Team’s NFL Odds to Make the Playoffs Yes/No Props
NFL Futures: Each Team's NFL Odds to Make the Playoffs Yes/No Props
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has just released its updated Yes/No NFL Playoff props for the 2019-20 season, and the New England Patriots are the league’s strongest choice to return to the postseason. Tom Brady’s squad is -900 to make the playoffs, with the “No” returning +600. The Patriots have only missed the playoffs three times during Bill Belichick’s 19-year tenure in Foxborough. New England’s opponent in Super Bowl 53, the Los Angeles Rams, are -350 to make next year’s playoffs, with the “No” paying +275.
Now that the Cleveland Browns have assembled a widely-respected roster, which team has assumed the role of longest postseason odds? The Miami Dolphins are 11-to-1 to make the playoffs next season, followed by the Arizona Cardinals at 10-to-1. Some other notables include: The Pittsburgh Steelers are -120 to miss the playoffs; The Oakland Raiders are +550 to make the playoffs; And the Chicago Bears are even-money to miss the postseason.
The number that jumped out to me was Kansas City to MISS the playoffs at +300. Every team experiences roster turnover from year-to-year, but the 2019 Chiefs team is unlikely to look anything like the 2018 version. Kareem Hunt, Justin Houston, Eric Berry, and Dee Ford are all gone. Tyreek Hill is likely to be facing a lengthy suspension and Kansas City traded away its first round pick from April’s draft. Safety Daniel Sorensen is the ONLY defensive player left from the 2015-16 season (Courtesy Arrowhead Addict).
The Chiefs did bring in plenty of Pro Bowl-caliber talent in Carlos Hyde, Tyrann Mathieu, and Frank Clark, but how quickly will they get acclimated to Andy Reid’s scheme? According to Sharp Football Stats, Kansas City will play the league's hardest schedule according to opponents' defensive efficiency. The Chiefs will play ten games against opponents that were ranked in the top-10 of defensive efficiency, including Chicago (No. 1), Baltimore (No. 3), Minnesota (No. 4) and Denver twice (No. 5). Kansas City will also face the league’s toughest schedule against rushing defenses.
Whereas New England hasn’t seen a credible threat in the AFC East in the last decade, the Chiefs do have a legitimate sidekick in the LA Chargers. Philip Rivers' squad went 12-4 last year and beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. By virtue of last year’s division tiebreaker, Kansas City has to play at New England for their AFC East crossover, while the Chargers get the Miami Dolphins.
If Los Angeles is able to wrestle the division crown away from the Chiefs, a Wild Card spot certainly isn’t guaranteed. Cleveland is now poised to make a playoff run behind Baker Mayfield. Jacksonville should be improved after acquiring Nick Foles to run the offense. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston and Indianapolis will all be in the mix for a potential Wild Card spot.
Kansas City is -400 to make the playoffs, which carries an implied probability of 80-percent. This is the NFL where parity is king. With the Chiefs’ roster turnover and uncertainty surrounding Tyreek Hill, I think there’s some value in the +300 price that the Chiefs miss the postseason this year.
SportsGrid Note: As of 7/1 you can bet $270 on the Chiefs -270 on Fanduel Sportsbook (pays $100) and $95 on the Chiefs +300 (Pays $285) to lock in a guaranteed profit on the early odds available. Regardless of which side you like, shopping around for the best price is a good way to maximize your profit.
Fanduel Sportsbook NFL Odds to Make The Playoffs as of 7/1/2019
Westgate SuperBook NFL Odds to Make The Playoffs as of 7/1/2019
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