Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 5
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let’s see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton
Brighton to win +170
Brighton have faced a brutal schedule to start the season with games against Chelsea, Manchester United and Everton, but despite three losses, Brighton has actually played well in these games. Brighton had more shots than both Chelsea and United in their matchups (equal shots with Everton), and they had more possession in all three of the games.
Brighton have a -2 goal difference overall but have a +2.1 expected goal difference, according to FBRef, so perhaps they have faced some bad luck to start the season.
Palace have faced the same trio of United, Chelsea and Everton, and the Eagles actually earned a win against Manchester United. However, despite that win, Palace have been less impressive than Brighton with an expected goal difference of -3.7.
Palace have had better results, but Brighton have played better soccer. I look for them to continue to build off their positive play to start the year and to take all three points against the Eagles.
Leicester vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win +320
Aston Villa +1 (no push) -105
Aston Villa are off to a surprise 3W-0D-0L start, including a shocking 7-2 win over Liverpool in their last league game before the international break. Villa have a +9 goal difference and only a +3.2 expected goal difference, so there is no doubt they will fall back at some point. But it is still undeniable that Villa are playing extremely well at the moment.
Leicester also started the year 3-0-0, but they fell 3-0 last week in what was a brutal performance against West Ham. The Blue Foxes were outshot 14-4 and did not record a shot on target for the entire game.
Leicester proved they are a good team with their results from last season, but they are not an elite team on the level of Liverpool or Manchester City. Villa should have a chance in this game — especially with the way they are playing at the moment — to get a win, but they definitely should be expecting at least a point.
Newcastle vs. Manchester United
Newcastle +1 (no push) +115
Manchester United are 1-0-2 to start the year, and they have played poorly in all three of their league games. United lost 3-1 to Crystal Palace, needed a 100th minute penalty to steal a win against Brighton (outshot by Brighton 18-7 in that game) and then lost 6-1 to Spurs after an early Anthony Martial red card.
United are 19th in the league in expected goal differential at -4.7, ahead of only newly promoted West Brom. Obviously, nobody expects United to play this poorly all campaign, but it is hard to believe in the Red Devils at the moment. And Martial will miss this game due to his red card last match.
Newcastle are 2-1-1 to start the year and owns a +1 goal difference and -0.6 expected goal difference. They project to be an average EPL side this year, but that should be good enough to earn at least a point against a struggling Manchester United side.