MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 10/1/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Under 8.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating out 5
Our model doesn’t see many runs being scored in tonight’s St. Louis Cardinals–San Diego Padres matchup, which features starters Adam Wainwright and Zach Davies, both of whom have been surprisingly good in 2020.
Wainwright posted a career-best 10.9% swinging-strike rate along with a 5.7% walk rate, his lowest walk rate since 2015. Davies, meanwhile, pitched to career-best clips in strikeout rate (22.8%) and swinging-strike rate (10.0%). Davies hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start this year while Wainwright has done so in just one outing.
With these two going at pitcher-friendly Petco, it’s easy to see why we think runs will be at a premium tonight. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that the Cards had a meager .305 wOBA against righties this season, although the Padres were really good in the split (.347 wOBA).
We have just one bet on today’s MLB postseason slate that we rate as better than a one-star bet, and that one bet is the under in this game. We project only 6.89 runs to be scored (3.62-3.27 in favor of the Padres), and we have the under hitting 64.32% of the time.