MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/7/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Under 9.0 (-115): 4-Star Rating out 5
The under hit in yesterday’s game between the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics, and our model thinks that should be the case again on Wednesday.
Oakland starter Jesus Luzardo posted solid numbers in the regular season, with a 4.05 SIERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, and 6.9% walk rate. While he struggled in the wild-card round against the White Sox, we should probably cut him some slack, as Chicago was one of the best teams versus lefties this year.
Luzardo faced Houston twice this year and performed pretty well, most recently allowing just 2 earned runs in 7.0 innings last month.
Houston’s Jose Urquidy is more difficult to gauge, as he has a sub-3.00 ERA but dreadful underlying numbers, including a 5.41 SIERA and 14.7% strikeout rate. He showed lots of promise across 41.0 innings in 2019, including a 24.0% strikeout rate, but the whiffs haven’t carried over to this season.
Still, he held the Athletics to 2 earned runs over 6.0 innings during the regular season, and Oakland ranks just 13th in wRC+ against righties.
numberFire’s algorithm projects the under hitting 62.5% of the time, earning the bet a four-star rating.
If you’re looking for some action in one of the night games, our model also sees value in under 9.0 runs (-122) between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. The Bronx Bombers obviously add risk to this wager, but we have two solid pitchers on the mound in Charlie Morton and Masahiro Tanaka, and numberFire projects the under coming through with a 62.1% likelihood.