MLB Betting Guide: World Series Game 3
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Rays +1.5 (-126): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Rays Moneyline (+134): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Game 3 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays gives us a pitching matchup of Walker Buehler and Charlie Morton. Both pitchers are outstanding. Since the start of 2018, Buehler has a 3.47 SIERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 6.0% walk rate. Morton has been just as good, posting a 3.57 SIERA 29.2% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate in that same span.
In the small sample of the 2020 playoffs, Morton (3.43 SIERA) gets the slight edge over Buehler (3.49 SIERA), with Buehler uncharacteristically struggling with walks (13.3% walk rate) in 19 frames in these playoffs. Morton has been absolutely dialed in over his last two outings, allowing zero runs and just nine total baserunners over 10 2/3 innings. And as always, he’ll be handing the ball over to a Tampa Bay ‘pen that’s been deadly this season.
Our model sees this game being extremely close, projecting Tampa Bay to win 4.20-4.10. With the Rays a 1.5-run ‘dog, we see value on the Tampa side. We forecast the Rays to cover 65.14% of the time, making that a three-star wager. We also give the Rays 53.3% odds of winning straight up, and Tampa Bay on the moneyline is a two-star bet.