Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the YellaWood 500
Even with the playoffs in full swing, our NASCAR DFS strategy for superspeedways remains unwavering: stack the back, baby.
As discussed in this week’s track preview, playoff drivers don’t monopolize the front of the finishing order in Talladega the way they do at other tracks. With all the playoff drivers starting in the top 12 spots on Sunday, this means we’ll naturally have place-differential candidates starting deeper in the field who can pull through with big fantasy totals.
We just have to determine which drivers that will be.
That’s where the data comes into play. The table below sorts the drivers by their starting position. You can start at the bottom and scroll up until you find someone who fits your fancy.
The main emphasis here should be the five races in Talladega and the two in the current form section at Daytona. Because superspeedway racing requires a different skillset than other tracks, some drivers run better here than they do elsewhere. The reverse is also true. There’s definitely a difference between Daytona and Talladega, so we can’t just simply lump them all together, but looking at Daytona races will be better than digging too much into what happened last week in Las Vegas.
As always, the number listed for each driver in those sections is their average running position rather than their finish. It’s worth noting that data is a bit less valuable here than usual.
A good example of why comes from this spring’s Talladega race. There, Aric Almirola ($10,700) and his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates hung out in the back for most of the day, trying to avoid trouble. That brought their average running position down. However, when the laps mattered, they leapt to the front. Kevin Harvick ($10,500) was leading on the last lap, and Almirola finished third, nearly winning the race backwards.
As a result, it can be helpful to dig into the finishes as well. At Racing Reference, we can see each driver’s full history at Talladega, and we can also use their fantasy tool to see who has run best in the seven superspeedway races since the start of last year.
The other numbers listed are each driver’s FanDuel salary and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The odds are presented in fractional form, so Joey Logano ($11,600) being listed at 12 means he’s +1200 to win.
|Current Form||Track History|
|Martin Truex Jr.||$10,000||24||3||7||21||6||3||12||22||24||31||10||26||25|
|John Hunter Nemechek||$5,000||85||23||19||20||28||28||14||23||18||—||—||—||—|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$11,000||24||26||23||39||18||18||17||11||10||11||8||19||15|
Based on this, a couple of back-stacking options should be obvious.
The first is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($11,000), who will start 26th. Stenhouse has a win and five top-fives in his past eight Talladega races, one of which was a runner-up back in the spring. He tends to be a volatile DFS play, but he has been far more stable at Talladega, where the wide straightaways can allow for some erratic driving. Stenhouse can certainly be a core play on Sunday.
Another option a couple of rows behind Stenhouse is Tyler Reddick ($9,600). Reddick’s four superspeedway races in the Cup Series have been disappointing with no finishes better than 20th. Still, he won here in the Xfinity Series last year, and he won at Daytona in that series back in 2018. Starting back in 30th, Reddick’s upside outweighs the concerns around his finishes on this track type.
It’s also noteworthy that the winner of the August Daytona race — William Byron ($8,800) — will start 21st. Byron’s finishes have been better in Daytona, but he was 11th here in the spring, and he has led at least 10 laps in three of his five career Talladega races. Getting Byron in the back half of the field is enough to make him a cash-game consideration at $8,800.