3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/24/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player’s stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Over 14.5 Rebounds (-128)
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks attempt to go up 3-1 in the Orlando Magic series behind another anticipated double-double from the league’s assumed back-to-back MVP. The Magic are tied for the third-most rebounds allowed per game this postseason (49.3), and Giannis himself leads the league in rebounding through three games with 16.0 per contest.
Giannis has recorded 15 rebounds or more in four-of-six meetings this season. He grabbed 11, 17, and 20 rebounds in this series and 14, 15, and 18 during the regular season. In every meeting, he played between 30-35 minutes, and when he’s on the floor between 30-39 minutes this season, Giannis is recording 15.1 rebounds per game.
numberFire’s model projects 14.2 boards for Giannis over 33 minutes in Game 4.
Steven Adams, Over 10.5 Rebounds (-122)
Steven Adams continued to be a mismatch on the boards versus the Rockets even though he’s struggled to score points the past two games. Adams has failed to hit his PRA totals in the previous two games and has only posted rebounding totals hitting the over. He’s totaled 12, 11, and 13 rebounds, in that order, through three games. When he plays 30 or more minutes this season, Adams is averaging 12.5 rebounds per game.
Houston is tied with Orlando in allowing 49.3 rebounds per game in the postseason, and Adams has led the Thunder with 12.0 per game. He surpassed 30 minutes in the last two meetings after failing to in the previous four meetings during the season.
numberFire’s model predicts 9.8 rebounds in 29 minutes versus the Rockets, but with the importance of Game 4, I think Adams plays more than 30 minutes for the third straight game.
Duncan Robinson, Over 13.5 Points (-108)
Duncan Robinson has been one of the multiple role players making a difference in the Miami Heat‘s postseason run through three games. Up 3-0 on the Indiana Pacers, Robinson has heated up the last two games of the series with 15 and 24 points on seven and eight shot attempts. He’s shooting 56.5% from the field, 55% from three, and 80% from the free-throw line through his first three career postseason games.
The Pacers are allowing 115.3 points per game in the postseason (12th) but allowing the fewest field-goal attempts (77.3). The issue with Indiana is they’re allowing an NBA-worst 35 free-throw attempts per game right, and Robinson has visited the line 10 times through three games. He attempted eight triples each in the first two meetings and four in Game 3; if he tries his season average of around 7.3 attempts in Game 4, he should hit the over again.
numberFire’s model projects him to record 13.5 points in 30 minutes, but I like him to score 14 or more for the third straight game. When he plays more than 30 minutes this season, he’s averaging 15.5 points and 14.0 on one day of rest, so let’s hope he plays the projected 30 minutes by the model.