NBA Betting Guide: Thursday 9/24/20
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Nuggets +6.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Lakers predictably dominated the Nuggets in Game 1; Denver was coming off their second seven-game series in a row and had to face an LA team who was playing on five days of rest. With each passing game, however, Denver has started to figure out LA, and it’s a pattern that Denver has followed throughout this postseason.
The Nuggets are now 6-3 straight up (SU) and 8-1 against the spread (ATS) when down in a series. They’ve covered in those games by an average of 11.1 points, and two of those three losses came by just two points, including Anthony Davis‘ buzzer-beating three the other night. Denver is 4-1 ATS as “home” underdogs this postseason.
The Lakers are 4-5 ATS this season as more than five-point favorites after losing by more than five in their previous game. Denver is 5-3 ATS as more than five-point underdogs following a win of more than five points.
LA is 1-3 ATS following losses in which LeBron James scored at least 25 points (he actually scored 30 in Game 3, which is just the second time all season he’s scored 30-plus in a losing effort).
numberFire’s models project Game 4 to go down to the wire, with the Lakers expected to eke out a win by 0.7 points. We give the Nuggets a 67.3% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread and mark the bet as a four-star play.