NBA Finals Betting Guide: Friday 10/9/20
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Heat +7.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Apparently, the Miami Heat need Jimmy Butler to go off for 40 points to have a chance at a win against the Los Angeles Lakers. Butler put up a near triple-double on Tuesday, but it wasn’t enough as LA pulled away in the final minutes to take a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals. The Heat are in must-win mode tonight if they wish to extend the series. While our models don’t see them being able to stop King James and The Brow, they do project another close game.
Teams with 3-1 series leads in this year’s playoffs are 5-3, though they’ve gone 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS), failing to cover by an average of 1.9 points.
The Lakers are 28-9 this season when favored by more than five points after a more than five-point win, though they’ve gone 17-19-1 ATS in those contests. LA is 4-7 ATS this season as favorites in games after Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scores at least 15 points, as he did in Game 4.
The Heat are 4-1-1 in the bubble as more than five-point underdogs. They are 2-0-1 ATS this season as more than five-point underdogs after a more than five-point loss. Miami is 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 “away” games.
Our models project LeBron James and Anthony Davis to hoist the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy when the buzzer sounds tonight. However, we have them winning by just 2.1 points. We give the Heat a 65.0% chance of covering the 7.0-point spread this evening and mark the bet as a three-star play.