NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/30/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player’s stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
LeBron James, Over 8.5 Assists (-134)
The revenge tour over the Western Conference has ended for LeBron JamesMiami Heat will take on the challenge of upsetting the NBA’s favorited Los Angeles Lakers to win the championship. LeBron has been unstoppable during the Lakers’ 15 postseason games, averaging 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.9 assists.
The 35-year-old has averaged at least a double-double in all three playoff series, and this series should be no different. Dating back to the 2015-16 playoffs with the Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron has had high-assist outings, and it’s only grown with his age. In the 2019-20 playoffs, LeBron’s averaged 11.6 assists per game in Game 1s, increasing his 2018-19 average of 10.5 across four series. In 2017-18, he averaged 8.0 assists over four series and 9.5 in four series during 2016-17.
In the last 15 overall Game 1’s (2016-20), LeBron has posted 9 or more assists in 9-of-15 games. In the six he didn’t, LeBron posted 4, 4, 7, 7, 8, 8 in those performances.
LeBron ranks third overall in the postseason with 8.9 assists per game and an NBA-best 8.2 since the semifinals began. He’s gone over 8 assists in 5-of-10 games since then, and I like his chances of posting his 11th double-double of the postseason.
numberFire’s model pegs him to record a game-high 10.3 assists in Game 1.
Goran Dragic, Over 27.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113)
Goran Dragic has had the best postseason of his career during the 2019-20 playoffs. He’s averaged 20.5 points, 4.7 assists, and 4.2 rebounds in 15 games for his first NBA Finals appearance. Dragic has been an over-machine for prop bets in the playoffs, and for assists specifically, he’s gone over 8-of-15 game. For points (19.5) or rebounds (3.5), he’s cashed the over in 10-of-15. The most profitable bet of all Dragic options has been his PRA total (27.5).
He’s hit the over in 11-of-15 postseason games, and in those 11 games, he’s dished out 5 or more assists in 7 of those 11. Out of the eight times he didn’t, Dragic recorded four assists in three of them, and three assists in two more. In Game 1s of the postseason, he’s averaging 26.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, going over 27.5 PRA in all three games.
In his one meeting with the Lakers this season, Dragic totaled 19 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds off the bench for 34 minutes. In the postseason, he’s started all 15 outings for the Heat and averaged 34.6 minutes per game.
numberFire’s model predicts Dragic to post 18.6 points, 5.6 assists, and 3.6 rebounds, hovering around his 27.5 PRA line.