AccuScore: NFL Week 13 Saints vs. Falcons Betting Preview
New Orleans, sitting at 9-2 on the season and just one road loss so far, heads to Georgia this weekend to match up with the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are slight home underdogs, with four of their seven losses this season coming at home.
Let’s look at where the value is at in this one.
Odds (via FanDuel)
• New Orleans Saints: -138
• Atlanta Falcons: +118
• New Orleans Saints -2.5: -110
• Atlanta Falcons +2.5: -110
• Over 45.5: -106
• Under 45.5: -114
Key Points to Consider
Outlook: This is the second matchup in three weeks between these two sides. New Orleans won on Nov. 22 fairly easily, 24-9. They’ll look to remain undefeated in the division and move to 5-0 there.
Betting on the Spread: Betting on the spread here is tough, to say the least. The Saints are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) so far, compared to the Falcons’ 5-6 ATS record.
The Saints cover a 2.5-point spread in about 52 percent of simulations. Average margin of vic-tory per sim is Saints +1.6 points.
Trending Well: Since taking over as head coach, Raheem Morris has the Falcons playing 4-2 ball in six games. Trending upwards.
Weapon: Saints WR Michael Thomas is projected to have a big-time performance this weekend as he averages 122 passing yards on 10 catches per sim.
Projected QB Stats
For the Saints, Taysom Hill is projected to finish with 307 passing yards on 29 com-pletions, along with 14 rushing yards on 3 carries. He averages 1.4 TDs and 0.6 INTs per sim.
For the Falcons, Matt Ryan is projected to finish with 319 passing yards on 29 com-pletions. He averages 1.4 TDs and 0.8 INTs per sim.
Four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. Average total combined score in simulations is 48.8 points. The OVER hits in 58% of simulations, compared to the 52-to-53 percent chance in-dicated by the odds.
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