Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Can the Raiders Keep It Rolling?
While it may have looked a little dicey at times this offseason, the NFL season is here! Our second week of Monday Night Football is here, and we get an interesting showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Las Vegas Raiders.
Let’s dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Bet to Target
If Week 1 was any indicator, this could definitely be a high-scoring affair. Both teams clocked 34 tallies a week ago, and FanDuel Sportsbook is setting tonight’s total at 48.5 points.
Interestingly, the Saints were very mediocre on offense, but the Raiders sure weren’t — Josh Jacobs found the end zone three times and just missed 100 yards rushing, while Derek Carr was highly efficient with 239 passing yards and a score. Adding Henry Ruggs to this offense has certainly tacked on some firepower.
Oakland’s defensive seemed to struggle even as their offense was humming along — they gave up nearly 400 yards of total offense to the Teddy Bridgewater-led Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the Saints allowed two passing touchdowns to the Tom Brady-driven Tampa Bay Buccaneers (yes, that’s odd to type).
Interestingly enough, despite all of those points in their first contest, neither team played particularly quickly — in fact, New Orleans clocked in only 25th in situation-neutral pace, while Las Vegas was a bit faster, coming in 15th.
This game started with an over/under of 50.5 points and has since been bet down, so it will be interesting to see where it settles out. 82% of bets have been placed on the over so far.
Our models actually have the under hitting 55.2% of the time, making it a one-star bet.
Other Bets to Consider
Looking at oddsFire, we see that public money continues to pour in on the road Saints — as 6.0-point favorites, 78% of bets and 70% of the money has come in on the road team.
Our algorithm likes the road Saints, projecting them to win a very nice 69% of the time. If that’s what you believe in, the moneyline (Saints -225) isn’t a bad idea.
If you want to get super spicy, think about targeting some members of the Saints with star receiver Michael Thomas out with a high ankle sprain — targeting Alvin Kamara or Emmanuel Sanders‘ receiving yards prop bets could be a solid play. Also, Josh Jacobs has a pretty low total of only 17.5 receiving yards at the BetMGM SportsBook, which could be a great play in a negative game script.
Historical Betting Trends
— The Saints were outstanding against-the-spread (ATS) in 2019, posting an 11-6 mark.
— The Raiders were solid yet unspectacular ATS last year, posting an 8-8 mark.
— The Saints are road warriors. They have been a betting darling by going 7-0 ATS.
— In primetime MNF games, the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
— New Orleans has owned this matchup in recent history, going 7-2 ATS in the last 9.