NFL Betting Guide: Week 4
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets
with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting
on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we
use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any
given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager
relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110
spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three
times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 48.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Daniel Jones‘ first career start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season likely gave the New York Giants‘ fan base hope. The rookie threw for more than 300 yards and had two passing and two rushing touchdowns as the Giants scored 32 points in a thrilling comeback victory. Unfortunately for Giants fans, he also showed his penchant for being unable to hold onto the ball by losing two fumbles; his 11 lost fumbles last season tied the record for the most ever in a season.
He’s lost two fumbles thus far this season in addition to four interceptions, and his turnover proneness has been a major factor in the Giants’ anemic offensive output this season. The Giants have put up an average of just 12.7 points per game, by far the lowest in the league (the New York Jets were averaging the fewest, but they are now averaging 3.6 more points than the Giants after scoring 28 points on Thursday night).
The Giants have scored 17 or fewer points in four straight and seven of their past nine — with the under going 5-4 in those contests. They face another tough test this week in an away game against the Los Angeles Rams. The under is 5-3 in LA since the start of last season.
LA is currently a 13.0-point favorite. Since the start of last year, the under is 18-10-2 when a home team has been favored by double digits. Home teams have given up an average of just 15.9 points in those games. The under went 1-4 in Week 4 last season when a winless team was involved in the game, and those contests saw an average of just 35.3 points scored.
numberFire’s models have these two teams projected to combine for 43.0 points this week. We give the under a 66.2% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a three-star play.
Under 53.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5
The Houston Texans‘ early season schedule has been a nightmare. The Deshaun Watson-led club has had to face the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s hard to fault them for an 0-3 start. Week 4 should present a more manageable test when they host the winless Minnesota Vikings.
Including the playoffs, the under was 4-2-1 in Houston last season when the Texans were favored. The Vikings have averaged 24.7 points per game since the start of last season; however, they’ve put up just 18.1 points per game as away underdogs in that time. The under is 5-2 in those contests and hit in their only such game this year, a 28-11 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
Kirk Cousins threw for 251 yards and three scores last week, and teammate Dalvin Cook had a monster game with 181 rushing yards. The under is 5-3 the week after Cousins has thrown three or more touchdowns for the Vikings. The under has gone 5-2 in games following an outing of 100-plus rushing yards from Cook. The under is 4-0 in away games following those Cook outbursts; the Vikings have averaged just 14.5 points in those games.
Our models project the teams to combine for just 41.3 points this week, far below the 53.5-point total. We give the under a whopping 81.1% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a strong five-star play.
Under 51.5 3-Star Rating out of 5
After giving up more than 30 points in their first two games, the Carolina Panthers‘ defense surprised in Week 3, allowing just 16 points in a five-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers. They’ll face a tough test this week when they host a 2-1 Arizona Cardinals team that has averaged a solid 25.7 points and given up the seventh-fewest points per game through three weeks.
The Cardinals and the under don’t seem a likely pair, but over the past half season, they’ve been fairly synonymous. The under is 3-0 in Arizona games this season and 6-2 over their past eight games, dating back to last year. The average total in those games has been 47.9 points, 3.6 below the current total.
Over the past five seasons, the under has gone 10-4 when the Cardinals have been at least 3.0-point favorites, as they are in Week 4. Those games have finished an average of 4.1 points below the total. They’ve held their opponents to just 15.9 points in those contests. The under is 2-1 in those games following a loss.
numberFire has the teams combining for just 46.4 points in a tightly fought Cardinals win. We give the under a 66.2% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $126.29 for every $100 wagered, we have the under marked as a three-star play.