Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 4
We are still in the early stages of the 2020 NFL season. But already tiers are emerging among the 32 teams. There are the contenders, the also-rans, and the no-hopers.
Week 3 of the season helped us know more about each team, so let’s see how the games impacted things.
The odds to win the Super Bowl for a lot of teams — both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook — look quite different than they did a week ago. Let’s dive in and take a look at five of the biggest movers after last week’s action.
Green Bay Packers
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1500 (6.3%)
The Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers don’t seem to have taken too kindly to the notion that they were a false 13-3 outfit a year ago. Sunday night saw them take apart the New Orleans Saints as the Pack improved to 3-0 and saw their title odds go from +2100 to +1500.
Our numbers give them a 9.2% chance of ultimate victory come February, so there’s betting value on Green Bay at these odds. We have them ranked eighth by our nERD metric. Their odds would be higher — one would assume — if not for the deeds of NFC rivals the Seattle Seahawks, not to mention the ever more impressive Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams also saw their title odds improve this past week.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +2500 (3.8%)
The Indianapolis Colts have bounced back after their opening week defeat at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars to work their way into serious contention in the AFC. Their new Super Bowl odds of +2500 are the seventh-best among all teams in their conference after Indy came in at +3000 a week ago.
Their odds of success by our metrics also jumped appreciably, but we still give them only a 2.6% chance of winning it all. Still, they are a team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +6500 (1.5%)
I dreamed a dream, but now that dream has gone from me. That is the thought of most Philadelphia Eagles fans after three weeks of mostly dreadful football, culminating in a far from a glorious tie with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3.
The Eagles rank 31st on offense, according to our numbers, and sit 25th in total nERD. Their title odds have fallen all the way to +6500 after starting at +1900 before the season.
Incredibly, their odds of winning the Super Bowl actually increased by our numbers this past week. They leapt from 0.5% to 1.0% thanks largely to the failings of the Dallas Cowboys and the rest of the NFC East rather than anything the Eagles did.
New Orleans Saints
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1500 (6.3%)
Things don’t look right with the New Orleans Saints at the moment. They’ve dropped two games in a row — both at home. This has seen their title odds drop for the second week in a row. After starting the season among the favourites in the NFC with title odds of +1200, they’ve since fallen out to +1500.
The Saints are outside the top 12 teams in terms of nERD, but despite this, our numbers are not ready to call it quits on their hopes of ending the Drew Brees era with a second Lombardi trophy. Only five teams have better odds of winning the Super Bowl by numberFire’s metrics. It may be unfortunate for the Saints, however, that two of said teams are in the NFC.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +15000 (0.7%)
It would be fair to say that people were not overly enthusiastic about the Denver Broncos‘ title chances heading into the season. But an 0-3 start combined with a litany of injuries to key players on both offense and defense has seen any trace of optimism among the bookmakers all but disappear.
The Broncos are out to +15000 to win the Super Bowl, worse odds than all but seven other NFL teams.
I only bring them to our attention here for the fact that they joined very exclusive company this week. According to numberFire’s title odds, they have joined the hapless New York Jets and the listless New York Giants as the only three teams that we give precisely zero percent chance of winning the Super Bowl this season. While it’s probably not truly zero if you want to carry out the number far enough, you know what I mean.