CFL Daily Fantasy DraftKings Week 10 – Up In Smoke
Week 10 of CFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings is a little bit of a mess as one team is home to most of the top plays on the slate as Edmonton hosts Montreal but it's a game that may not play due to air conditions. There are other good options to look at but some of them play on Friday night before a decision will be made regarding the Eskimos game on Saturday night. If the game is cancelled you better be prepared to late swap or you'll see all your lineups go up in smoke.
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Implied Team Totals
Edmonton – 34.25
Winnipeg – 29.75
BC – 25.75
Toronto – 24.75
Ottawa – 23.75
Saskatchewan – 20.75
Montreal – 17.75
It looks like a pretty quiet week on the weather front as there are only very slight chances of minimal precipitation in both Edmonton and Regina for their games on Saturday and Sunday. Neither of these situations should affect the games but keep an eye on the forecasts in case things worsen over the course of the week. The big unknown heading into this weekend isn't the weather so much as the air quality in Edmonton. The wildfires in next door BC haven't led to air quality warnings in Edmonton all week that even forced the Eskimos to practice indoors on Wednesday. There is a chance that the game could be cancelled on Saturday which would have a massive effect on lineup builds. Unfortunately, we won't likely have a decision on whether the game will play or not before the slate opens Friday night.
The Vegas lines this week all look about right but the line may widen even further in the Edmonton versus Montreal game if Johnny Manziel misses the matchup in concussion protocol. Antonio Pipkin has been taking starting reps for the Als and a Pipkin led offence would likely have a hard time getting to 17.75 points in an offence that averages below 14 points per game.
Mike Reilly, EDM - $11900
McLeod Bethel-Thompson, TOR - $8200
Travis Lulay, BC - $9600
Punt Single –
Antonio Pipkin, MTL - $6000
Last time the Eskimos faced the Alouettes back in Week 8, Reilly threw for 415 yards and four touchdowns while adding 27 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. He had a pretty good game. The Alouettes haven't shown any improvement on defence since then as they continue to allow the leagues' most passing touchdowns (19) and most passing yards (2633). On a per attempt basis the Als give up only slightly less than double the league average number of touchdowns per pass attempt and Edmonton has been running the second highest percentage of passing plays in the CFL in 2018 at 61.2%. With a projection for over 40 pass attempts Reilly is tough to fade even at his price tag.
McLeod Bethel-Thompson really struggled through his first half as the starting quarterback for the Argos but staged an amazing comeback versus the Redblacks, leading to over 300 passing yards and four touchdowns. Without a large sample of work to draw conclusions from this projection feels high but the matchup with the Lions helps his cause as they allow the third most passing yards per attempt (8.49) and the Argos project for the third most pass attempts on the slate (35.6). The whole Toronto offence also gets a bump in pace this week at the Lions have allowed the second most plays from scrimmage to opposing offences this season (60.1) behind only the Alouettes.
It's odd to have an option mentioned that is more expensive than a more highly projected player but call this one a gut play. Lulay has injected significant life into the Lions offence since regaining the starting job but their games with Jon Jennings under centre continue to hold down some of the macro numbers for the offence. Last week Lulay had his worst statistical output of the season in a game versus the Eskimos in which he was under constant pressure from a defensive front that is second in the league in sacks with 20. The Argos have created only seven sacks to this point which means Lulay should have much more time to throw versus the passing defence allowing the most yards per attempt in the league (9.54). It's quite conceivable that Lulay gets and extra 4-5 pass attempts than he's projected for and blows well past his mean projections.
Let's be honest – Antonio Pipkin is not good. If Willy, Shiltz, Adams, and Manziel failed to make this Als offence run it's pretty unlikely that the fifth string quarterback will be the difference maker. That said, Pipkin can run and he's priced less than most starters regardless of position. The Eskimos rush defence is one of the most exploitable in the league so at his price he's worth a sprinkle in GPPs.
Andrew Harris, WPG - $8900
James Wilder Jr., TOR - $8200
Jeremiah Johnson, BC - $6900
Punt Single –
Tre Mason, SSK - $5200
Andrew Harris is the leading man in the league's most dominant rushing attack which averages over 6.1 yards per carry as a team. This week's matchup versus Ottawa though will be the stiffest test he's faced to this point though as the RedBlacks rank only behind the Stampeders and Roughriders vaunted fronts allowing only 4.71 yards per carry. His usual efficiency won't likely be possible and it's unlikely the Bombers blow out the RedBlacks and give Harris a number of extra carries down the stretch. If Harris is going to pay off his hefty tag it will have to be through PPR points and a touchdown.
James Wilder Jr. had a pretty rough start to the season averaging only 4.3 yards per carry and having workload ranging from 3 to 21 carries per game. Thankfully for him, his workload has stabilized a bit in the Argos past two games and his efficiency has risen to 4.8 yards per carry. The Lions defence has allowed a league leading 11 rushing touchdowns to this point – 68% higher than the league average per carry. He continues to be an important part of the Toronto passing attack as well making him a less expensive version of Andrew Harris in a much more appealing matchup.
Wilders' opposition counterpart rounds out the top three in the projections as Jeremiah Johnson is expected to return to the starting lineup for the Lions this week. The Argos allow about a league average yards per carry at just over five yards per carry. The matchup isn't great but Johnson's price tag makes him quite viable given his expected workload.
The Stampeders are the toughest matchup in the CFL for opposing running backs allowing only a league leading 4.39 yards per carry and nearly half the league average of rushing touchdowns per carry. It's not an opportunity that players should be looking to attack. That said, Mason has seen an increase in his workload following the departure of Jerome Messam and he racked up a ridiculous seven receptions in his last game versus Edmonton. He will still have to compete with Thigpen for touches but at only $5K he's a reasonable salary relief option if players need one at RB.
Duke Williams, EDM - $9700
Derel Walker, EDM - $9600
Kamar Jorden, CGY - $8400
Kenny Stafford, EDM - $6800
Diontae Spencer, OTT - $8700
Brad Sinopoli, OTT - $9200
Emmanuel Arceneaux, BC - $7000
S.J. Green, TOR - $7700
Nic Demski, WPG - $6900
Punt Single(s) –
R.J. Harris, OTT - $4900
Kevin Elliott, BC - $4300
After a torrid start to the 2018 season in which Williams was averaging over ten targets per game leading to five straight games over 100 yards receiving. His past two games have seen a dip in production as defences have rolled coverage over to him making room for Derel Walker to re-emerge with two straight games over 100 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns. Most games it would be hard to imagine both of these receivers having monster game but versus the Alouettes with a projection for over 40 pass attempts it's certainly a possibility. It is impossible however to fit Reilly, Williams, and Walker in the same lineup, so players will have to pick and choose. Williams is likely to have a little easier matchup out of the slot, so he winds up with a bit better projection versus the most appealing matchup for opposing passing games around. Kenny Stafford is the less heralded and less expensive option of the receiving corps that also gets a bump this week based on increased volume.
The Roughriders defence is unlikely to get their doors blown off as they did a couple weeks ago when they spotted the Stampeders a 24-0 lead in the first quarter. However, the loss of Eric Rogers makes Kamar Jorden an interesting option as he gets an increased number of opportunities as the clear top receiving option for Calgary. The Riders are right on league average in terms of both passing touchdowns and yards allowed per attempt, so the matchup may not be as difficult as it may appear for the Stamps offence that leads the league in completions over 30 yards (20) and is third in passing yards per attempt (9.03). The Stamps know how to get vertical.
A pair of RedBlacks round out the top few spots in the projections as Sinopoli continues to average over nine targets a game and Spencer gets his projections shored up with his return game duties. The matchup with Winnipeg isn't nearly as appealing as it has been in previous seasons as they allow the second lowest rates for passing yards (7.24) and passing touchdowns (0.018) per attempt on the slate. Sheer volume is really what makes any of the Ottawa receivers viable options as the Redblacks project for the most pass attempts of any team this week (40.1). The opportunity to get points per reception makes cheaper Ottawa receivers like Ellingson, Harris and Rhymes interesting options given the volume expected.
Some in the fantasy community had high hopes for Arceneaux last week after an early 39 yard reception but that wound up being his only catch of the game. This week's matchup versus Toronto promises the most generous secondary in the league to work against with an appealing mid-tier price tag well below other teams' top receivers.
If you're a Bethel believer, Green is a high risk play as two of his seven games this season have been over 20 fantasy points but four of the other five have seen him in single digits. As mentioned earlier, the Lions allow the third most passing yards per attempt and with Green being the top target in Toronto, he should get plenty of looks. Green's volatility usually means that I try to be underweight on him and let others chase points but this week he may be worth the risk at a discounted price tag over where he's often been previously.
The other possible mid-tier option is Winnipeg's very own Nic Demski who has seen his role in the offence increase continually this season with work as a receiver and ball carrier. The loss of Weston Dressler to injury this week should only increase his opportunities to produce versus an Ottawa secondary allowing well above the league average yards per pass attempt (8.22) and passing touchdowns per attempt with only Montreal and Toronto worse in that category.
There aren't the slew of sub $4K receivers available this week as there have been in recent weeks but Harris and Elliott should both continue to see consistent targets in their offences at price tags well below the average price per player. Elliott, in particular, seems to have become a favourite target of Lulay since entering the lineup and the loss of Ricky Collins Jr. to a hamstring injury should keep him in the lineup another week.
Calgary Stampeders - $5600
Winnipeg Blue Bombers - $4700
Edmonton Eskimos - $5200
Saskatchewan Roughriders - $4100
The Roughriders offence continues to struggle to get any sustained traction and the dismissal of top WR Duron Carter this week won't make them better. Calgary continues to be near the top of the league in forced two and outs (47), forced turnovers (25), and sacks (17) making them the top option versus the Riders who are second worst in the league in terms of offensive points scored per game (16.7) behind only the Alouettes.
The past couple season the Bombers have become known as a defence that would give up a ton of yards and points but were fantasy viable due to their ability to create turnovers and convert them into touchdowns. This season they've still been creating turnovers at a league leading rate (25) but they've also cut down on their yards and points allowed significantly. Add to that their league leading 21 sacks and they are fantasy relevant every week even if it's not a great matchup versus a RedBlacks offence that can put up a ton of yards. Their inability to convert those yards into touchdowns though makes the Bombers even more interesting at a discount to Calgary and Edmonton.
The Eskimos come in at a significant salary savings over the top projected Stampeders on the merit of their being second in the league in sacks with 20 in a matchup versus the Alouettes who have allowed a league high 27 sacks. They had six sacks in their last matchup a couple weeks ago and should have a field day again versus the Als who score the fewest points per game in the CFL with only 13.8 per game. The possibility of Antonio Pipkin starting at QB for the Als only makes the matchup more enticing.
The Roughriders defence leads the league in forced two and outs with 50 and are in the top half in sacks and forced turnovers. Calgary isn't an offence you'd usually like to attack with a DST but the steep discount in salary over other top options makes the Riders viable. Christion Jones ability to score TDs as a returner gives the unit a high ceiling as well.
That about does it for Week 10. Have fun watching the games and good luck in all your contests!
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