FanDuel NBA Simulations Picks For March 25th
After extending my winning streak to two on Tuesday’s mid-day slate with another sweet five cent cash, my lineups came crashing back to reality last night thanks to 1 whole FanDuel point from Malik Beasley. As is usually the case with a GPP lineup, there were some hits and some misses. Kyrie Irving (62.9) and Reggie Jackson (32.6) were strong plays identified at point guard while spending up for Kawhi Leonard (67) was a slate winning strategy. Unfortunately, the low floors of Mikal Bridges (13.4), Malik Beasley (1), and an absolute floor game from Paul George (8.7) held back many of my lineups.
Wednesday’s slate brings another chance to find the cash line with six games. Let’s take a look at the slate!
The value stars:
PG – Kris Dunn (CHI) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
PG – Mike Conley (UTA) – 6x rate = 42 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
SG – Josh Richardson (PHI) – 6x rate = 42 percent, 7x rate – 15 percent
SG – Malik Monk (CHA) – 6x rate = 36 percent, 7x rate – 22 percent
SG – Malik Beasley (MIN) – 6x rate = 33 percent, 7x rate – 26 percent
SF – DeAndre Hunter (ATL) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 19 percent
SF – Joe Ingles (UTA) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 22 percent
SF – Rudy Gay (SA) – 6x rate = 37 percent, 7x rate = 18 percent
PF – James Johnson (MIN) – 6x rate = 50 percent, 7x rate = 34 percent
PF – Eric Paschall (GS) – 6x rate = 35 percent, 7x rate = 22 percent
PF – Kyle Kuzma (LAL) – 6x rate = 35 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
C – Jakob Poeltl (SA) – 6x rate = 40 percent, 7x rate = 14 percent
C – Bismack Biyombo (CHA) – 6x rate = 38 percent, 7x rate = 28 percent
Tier one – 60 points > 30 percent of the time
PG – Luka Doncic (DAL) – 60 points = 30 percent, 70 points = 6 percent
Tier Two – 60 points > 10 percent of the time or 70 points > 5 percent of the time
PF – Anthony Davis (LAL – 60 points = 24 percent, 70 points = 13 percent
PG – Trae Young (ATL) – 60 points = 20 percent, 70 points = 5 percent
C – Andre Drummond (CLE) – 60 points = 18 percent, 70 points = 4 percent
SF – LeBron James (LAL) – 60 points = 17 percent, 70 points = 2 percent
C – Joel Embiid (PHI) – 60 points = 14 percent, 70 points = 2 percent
C – Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) – 60 points = 9 percent, 70 points = 6 percent
The slate has a lot of shaky value to it with very low floors associated with some of the highest upside options like James Johnson, Bismack Biyombo, and Malik Beasley all capable of getting 35+ FanDuel points at ~$4,000 or giving you single digits and wrecking a lineup. Players like Kris Dunn, Mike Conley, and DeAndre Hunter will have more stable floors but Conley and Dunn come at a position that warrants strong consideration for a spend up top.
Luka Doncic is the clear top spend on the slate and Trae Young carries a hefty upside as well. Anthony Davis is probably the stud you don’t want to miss out on tonight as he’s cleared 70 points in 13 percent of his games this season and is at a relatively thin position. In addition, spending at the center position makes a ton of sense with more studs available up top alongside a strong upper mid-tier option in Rudy Gobert.
If you’re looking for additional mid-tier upside options, Zach LaVine (CHI) is interesting at SG with five percent of his games over 60 and two percent over 70. It’s basically the same profile as Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) but at a much weaker position overall.