FanDuel NBA Simulations Picks For March 26th
“On the 12th day of quarantine my Luka gave to me……. 2.2 FanDuel points and a big F theeeeeeee”
At first glance the 2.2 FanDuel points seemed completely inconceivable but after binging Tiger King on NetFlix the last two nights I feel prepared for anything. If Joe Exotic can get 19 percent of the vote in a governor’s race in Oklahoma, we can find a 2.2 FanDuel point effort from Luka and a winning lineup that includes FOUR Oklahoma City Thunder players in it (Paul, Schroder, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Gallinari all went for 40+ in last night’s simulations).
After losing an appendage playing Luka Doncic last night, let’s take a look at Wednesday’s main slate through the prism of the characters in the docuseries. You always need some outrageous performances and a bit of crazy in your lineups to find your way at the top of a GPP and if any show can put you in the right mindset to embrace the crazy it’s Tiger King.
SPOILER ALERTS: If you have not watched the Tiger King, the analysis below in paragraph form will refer to SOME of the eccentric and exotic behavior displayed in the docuseries. We can’t possibly capture it all but if you want to avoid any spoilers at all move onto the picks in the player columns.
Joe Exotic, played by Christian Wood (DET)
Like Joe Exotic, the ranges of outcomes for Christian Wood are incredible. Wood has two games on the season he finished with negative FanDuel points. In his last game before the quarantine break he posted a season high 55.4 FanDuel points and did so with Corona Virus. While Wood rates as one of the clear cut values on the board based on our metrics, there is also a few devastating moments this season that will submarine your lineups. With Wood in your lineups you could emerge from a throne amidst a kingdom of Tigers or your lineups could get caught in a murder for hire scheme by the feds. We expect more of the good times than the bad, the possibilities are really endless here.
Carole Baskin, played by Kawhi Leonard (LAC)
Amid all the chaos and craziness of the behavior in the Tiger King documentary, there is Carole Baskin’s consistent demeanor. Whether the series is focusing on accusations about her murdering her ex-husband, recapping a failed attempt at a hired hit on her, or watching videos of Joe shooting a blow-up doll version of her on a youtube show – Carole appears unfazed. In terms of utter insanity, she might have the highest ceiling on the entire show but with Carole you know exactly what you’re getting each and every interview: an odd combination of emotionless exasperation covered in cat print. The same can be said of Kawhi Leonard. Fade Kawhi or Carole at your own risk.
Bhagavan Antle, played by Reggie Jackson (LAC)
It took a while for Antle to work his way into the docuseries just like Reggie Jackson’s delayed start to the season and much like Reggie’s season Antle appears unsatisfied with just one partner. Antle ends up getting accused of murdering Tigers that are no longer of use to him and if you’ve seen any of Reggie Jackson’s decisions late in the shot clock you could certainly come up with a basketball equivalent. But in the end, Antle gets out of the show unscathed while everything else seems to fall apart. Sort of like Reggie Jackson ending up as a backup point guard on a championship contender while Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond get exiled. Jackson’s limited playing time this season kept his price tag down, but a 35 percent hit rate on 7x upside makes him one of the better plays in this format.
Jeff Lowe, played occasionally by Josh Jackson (MEM)
Jeff Lowe is a con man who smuggles baby Tigers into Vegas hotels in order to convince young women to have a threesome. When things are going right, Josh Jackson looks like a former Top Five pick and you feel like a genius for rostering him.
Jon Finley, played often by Josh Jackson (MEM)
Sometimes you sneak a Cub into a Vegas hotel and successfully con yourself into a threesome. Sometimes you get wrapped up in a three-way marriage, some poorly timed tattoo choices, and a meth addiction. I’m not sure there will ever be a better comparison for what it’s like to play Josh Jackson in DFS.
Howard Baskin , played by Giannis Antetokounmpo
From afar, Howard Baskin looks like the most level-headed and put together individual on the entire show. He doesn’t get caught up in the drama and he along with Carole tactically take advantage of all of Joe Exotic’s mistakes to eventually bring him down. It’s like watching Giannis and Middleton work their way through the regular season. But then you remember that time Giannis started air-balling FTs and think of Howard getting walked around on a leash or how he may have married someone who murdered her previous husband and you start to wonder – what’s really going to happen to Howard in the playoffs? Well for this regular season simulation we have no concerns as Howard’s consistency on the show mirrors Giannis’ consistent dominance as he’s cleared 60 FanDuel points in 35 percent of games played this season.
James Garretson, played by Nikola Jokic (DEN)
If your lineups are going to ride off into the sunset with a goofy looking grin on a jet ski, they’re going to involve Nikola Jokic.
JUST THE PLAYS NONE OF THE TIGERFOOLERY
The value stars:
PG – Reggie Jackson (LAC) – 6x rate = 44 percent, 7x rate = 35 percent
PG – De’Anthony Melton (MEM) – 6x rate = 40 percent, 7x rate = 25 percent
PG – Lonzo Ball (NO) – 6x rate = 32 percent, 7x rate = 21 percent
SG – Josh Hart (NO) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 21 percent
SG – Gary Harris (DEN) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 18 percent
SG – RJ Barrett (NYK) – 6x rate = 36 percent, 7x rate = 20 percent
SF – Trevor Ariza (POR) – 6x rate = 36 percent, 7x rate = 28 percent
SF – OG Anunoby (TOR) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 25 percent
SF – Josh Jackson (MEM) – 6x rate = 44 percent, 7x rate = 11 percent
PF – Christian Wood (DET) – 6x rate = 40 percent, 7x rate = 36 percent
PF – Paul Millsap (DEN) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 21 percent
C – Enes Kanter (BOS) – 6x rate = 35 percent, 7x rate = 22 percent
C – Jakob Poeltl (SA) – 6x rate = 40 percent, 7x rate = 14 percent
Tier one – 60 points > 30 percent of the time
SF – Giannis Antetokounmpo – 60 points = 35 percent, 70 points = 14 percent
Tier Two – 60 points > 10 percent of the time or 70 points > 5 percent of the time
PF – Kawhi Leonard – 60 points = 18 percent, 70 points = 0 percent
SG – Bradley Beal – 60 points = 14 percent, 70 points = 0 percent
PG – Damian Lillard – 60 points = 12 percent, 70 points = 9 percent
C – Nikola Jokic – 60 points = 14 percent, 70 points = 5 percent