Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 15th
Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Raul Alcantara, Doosan Bears, $20 FD/$9,500 DK – Alcantara is enjoying a fantastic season at the KBO as he’s posted a 3.14 ERA/3.62 FIP and has already won eight games. The run prevention and win loss record (8-1) aren’t even the most impressive feats for Alcanatara this season, but rather the massive increase in K rate. Last season, Alcantara posted a 13.8% K rate. This season, his K rate is up to 21.9%. Over the last two outings, Alcantara has struck out 17 batters in 14 IP and he only allowed one earned run. You’re getting perfect recent form, great 2020 data, a great matchup (SK Wyverns are averaging 3.8 runs per game – the second worst mark in the league) and a slate high win probability (71.5% as a -300 favorite). Alcantara simply checks all the boxes and FD has decided to price him as the cheapest pitcher on the board at $20, which is clearly a price tag that’s wrong. This is a unique situation and one that you need to take advantage of across all formats.
Eric Jokisch, Kiwoom Heroes, $28 FD/$10,000 DK – Jokisch is another pitcher who’s enjoying a great season though the run prevention (1.41 ERA/2.97 FIP) looks to be a bit sketchy. Jokisch’s ERA and FIP were above 3 last season and he doesn’t miss enough bats (18.7% K rate over the last 257 IP) to have an ERA under 2. Perhaps the biggest concern today is a matchup against the NC Dinos’ offense as they’ve performed as the top offense and team this season. This isn’t an upside spot but Jokisch is good enough that he can overcome difficult matchups. The price tags on Jokisch aren’t great either relative to his context but he’s still a viable play. He’s a -220 favorite in this spot, which shows how high Vegas views this pitcher and his team.
Drew Gagnon, KIA Tigers, $25 FD/$8,500 DK – Gagnon has a legitimate case to be the number two ranked pitcher in this slate. He leads all pitchers in action today in K rate (22.8%) this season and he’s due for some positive regression on the run prevention side (3.94 ERA/2.97 FIP). Gagnon has done an incredible job at keeping the ball in the park (0.15 HR/9) and he should continue to do so in this matchup against the Samsung Lions (53 home runs as a team ranks third worst in the league). He has a lower probability to win his game (53%) but we’re inclined to play him over Jokisch due to the difference in price tag and strikeouts. If you’re playing MME, you’re having exposure to both of these pitchers anyways.
Honorable mention: Min Soo Kim (KTW) (a matchup against the lowly Hanwha Eagles and a $5,500 price tag on DK makes Kim playable in this slate; his performance hasn’t been good and he doesn’t project to be a good pitcher, which are the reasons why he doesn’t deserve to be ranked inside the top 3 pitchers in this slate), Tyler Wilson (LG)
The KT Wiz are in a unique matchup today and it’s one that you don’t see at the KBO level often. Opposing pitcher Bum Soo Kim has allowed a slate worst 1.31 HR/9 over the last 192 IP, which has resulted in wretched run prevention (5.33 ERA/5.62 FIP). The KBO is typically littered with home grown talent that tend to keep the ball in the ground, but Kim is an exception. The KT Wiz are the only team in this slate with an implied total of 6 and they have the power to give Kim and this bullpen fits. Mel Rojas Jr. (KTW) is the first name you want to click on this stack as he leads the league in home runs (21) and has posted a gaudy 1.162 OPS. Rojas Jr. is expensive but you can’t leave him off this stack. Kim is a LHP, and paying top dollar for Baek Ho Kang (KTW) in a L/L could prove to be a challenge for your resources. If you’re looking for righty bats, Jae Gyun Hwang (KTW) is one of the best third basemen in the league though the $6,000 DK price tag makes him a difficult buy given his lack of power (5 home runs this season). If Jeong Dae Bae (KTW) can return to the leadoff spot, he’d be very valuable given his potential for 5 plate appearances and a $3,500 price tag on DK.
The next two offenses are difficult to rank but they’re likely going to end up being #2 and #3 in this slate. The Doosan Bears and Kiwoom Heroes have the same implied total (5.5) and while the Bears have a bit better of a matchup (opposing pitcher Ricardo Pinto has posted a 12.6% K rate and 11% BB rate), the Heroes pack in more event upside (69 home runs, 40 stolen bases). Players like ByungHo Park (KIW) and Ha Seong Kim (KIW) will have the platoon edge in their matchup as well, which makes them even more enticing. Kim is having an absurd season (14 home runs, 9 stolen bases) and is doing so at a weak shortstop position. On the other side, the Bears’ best hitters and Fantasy options, Jose Fernandez (DOO), Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) and Jae Il Oh (DOO) will have the platoon edge as LHBs in a matchup against a RHP.
Honorable mention: Hanwha Eagles (it feels gross typing the Eagles in our stack section but the opposing pitcher is fraudulent and this offense is very cheap; they’re worth a dart throw in MME), NC Dinos (finally going to get lower ownership as they take on a difficult pitching matchup), KIA Tigers (higher implied total than the Eagles and Dinos; opposing pitcher Jung Hyun Baek has allowed a 1.22 HR/9 over the last 330 IP and already has multiple starts this season in which he allowed 3 home runs)