Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 7th
Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Note: pitching chart will be added once MyKBOStats.com returns (it crashed early this morning)
Chang Mo Koo, NC Dinos, $10,800 DK – To put Chang Mo Koo’s (NCD) dominance into perspective, he has averaged over six more DK fantasy points per start than any other starter in the league. Once again, Koo is by far the most expensive starter on the slate, but rightfully so against a Wyverns offense that has struck out at a massive 19.3-percent rate (second highest of any team). Koo has struck out six-plus hitters in all but one of his 10 starts this year and that was the only start in which he failed to reach 20-plus fantasy points. The man is an absolute machine and belongs in cash game lineups at the very least.
Je Seong Bae, KT Wiz, $6,600 DK – The Wiz are listed as underdogs against a 27-23 Tigers squad that ranks below the league average in R/G. Bae has never displayed elite swing-and-miss stuff or anything closer but the goal of fantasy players tonight should be to alleviate salary concerns at the SP2 spot. Therefore, lineups will be able to include both Koo and high upside bats, instead of having to choose between one of the two. In back-to-back starts versus two of the better offenses in the league (Dinos and Twins), Bae has struck out 13.7-percent of opposing hitters, which is not great, but has allowed just 15 total baserunners in 12 innings (and only allowed three earned runs (ERs)). The goal here is to run hot on a point-per-dollar basis and the offense behind him should provide some offense and give him an opportunity to win the start. Obviously, Bae is not the safest of plays, but risks need to be taken to take down tournaments across the industry.
Won Sam Jang, Lotte Giants, $5,200 DK – In two starts this season, Won Sam Jang (LOT) has been absolutely blasted, allowing five earned runs (ERs) in each. However, those two starts have come against the Bears and Dinos respectively, who rank one and two in terms of runs scored per game (R/G). At 37-years old, Jang has not posted a WHIP below 1.57 since the start of the 2015 season, and has allowed double-digit hits per nine innings every season during that span as well. Jang is not good but he is priced near the bare minimum in the absolute best matchup possible versus the league-worst Eagles. Thus far, the Eagles rank dead last in R/G, HR/9 rate and BB rate while striking out at the highest rate in the league. His last time out, Jang lasted 89-pitches, so the team is willing to lett him pitch deep into a game if need be. All Jang needs to do is approach double-digit fantasy points, and it should be enough to warrant pairing him with Koo on DK, considering all the bats his minuscule salary will allow.
Honorable Mention: Shi Hwan Jang (HAN) has strung together back-to-back gems but faces a Giants offense that has preferred hitting in the split versus RHP and has struck out at the third lowest rate. Jang relies heavily on his strikeout ability so something has got to give here. Also, Seung Won Moon (SK) has taken his game to new heights this year, and shut down the Dinos in his first matchup, so he is a calculated risk in GPPs.
This is an interesting spot for the Lions offense because Jae Woong Kim (KIW) is nothing more than an extended opener. To this point, Kim has worked exclusively in a relief role, and has topped out at 50-pitches. In fact, he has exceeded 19-pitches in an outing just once. On paper, the Heroes bullpen leads teh league in ERA by over one quarter of a run, but their starters often last deep into games. To put it differently, the bullpen will be uniquely tested tonight, and that is after the “starter” leaves the game. Lefty Ja Wook Koo (SAM) has already launched multiple homers versus left-handed pitching (LHP) and has hit a respectable .286 in the split. Tyler Saladino (SAM), who is injured, did not display any power in the split as a Major Leaguer and that trend has continued at the KBO level (zero extra-base hits (XBH) so far). Essentially, him not being in the lineup likely saved the masses from some bad chalk. The bats to target are the likes of Sang Su Kim (SAM), Dong Yeop Kim (SAM) and Won Seok Lee (SAM) who all own the platoon edge versus the starter. Other than Sang Su Kim, the other two possess power, and it should be noted not a single bat in this stack costs more than $4,800 on DK.
Opposing starter Shi Hwan Jang (HAN) relies on his ability to miss bats to register outs and the Giants are not a team that strikes out very often. Furthermore, Jang is amongst the most wild pitchers in the entire league, sporting an 11.6-percent BB rate through 44.2 IP. By comparison, the only qualified starter to have walked opponents at a higher rate is Tae-hoon Kim (SK), so baserunners can rack up quickly against Jang. The Giants prefer hitting in the split versus RHP and names like Ah Seop Son (LOT) and Jun Woo Jeon (LOT) are always in play when facing a right-hander. Add in Dae Ho Lee (LOT) and you are well on your way to a properly-constructed Giants stack lineup.
Woo Chan Cha (LG) was not fooling anyone in his previous start versus the Bears as he was roasted for nine baserunners and eight runs in just one inning of work. The Bears are better-equipped to hit against RHP, being that most of their lineup is left-handed, but Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) and Ji Hwan Choi (DOO) specifically have held their own in the split. Kyeong Min Hur (DOO) is almost assuredly set to lead-off at a tough-to-fill third base position and Kun Woo Park (DOO) will also own the platoon edge in the three hole. Cha’s price has begun to depreciate in DFS as people have realized he is no ace and he is worth targeting against once again on Tuesday morning.
Honorable mention: Kiwoom Heroes versus David Buchanan and his FIP that sits almost exactly a full run above his ERA.