Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 10th
Tonight’s slate includes a weird mix of some of the top pitchers in the league and some of the worst. This creates some interesting dynamics for DFS rosters.
Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Eric Jokisch, Kiwoom Heroes, $9,700 DK/$29 FD – Although the most expensive starting pitchers on the slate are talented, Eric Jokisch (KIW) is the only one whose opponent ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs per game (R/G). The Samsung Lions offense just lost third baseman Won Seok Lee (SAM) to the injured list but their top bat Ja Wook Koo (SAM) also returned to the lineup. Koo hits from the left side of the plate, so Jokisch matches up well against him, and the Lions have struck out at the second highest rate in the league (18.9-percent). Realistically, Jokisch’s price point is starting to get uncomfortable for a player with a 19.3-percent K rate in the KBO, but there is a noticeable lack of high-end alternatives tonight (with Drew Rucinski (NCD) facing the Bears).
Kyeung Eun Noh, Lotte Giants, $6,000 DK/$22 FD – Today’s edition of “start the pitcher facing Hanwha” is Kyeung Eun Noh (LOT) of the Giants. Typically, Noh would not be a pitcher worth considering, as he owns a 5.06 FIP dating back to 2018. During that span, opposing hitters have posted a .169 ISO against him, which is tied for second highest of any pitcher on the slate, but the Eagles are completely devoid of power. Not only do the Eagles rank dead last in home runs per game (HR/G) but they also rank last in R/G and BB rate while striking out at the highest rate as well. Many of the top pitchers are matched up against tough opponents, and there are multiple expensive stacks worth targeting, so the price tag alone makes Noh viable versus the stand-alone worst offense.
Min Ho Lee, LG Twins, $5,800 DK/$23 FD – Projections would love Min Ho Lee (LG) as a per-dollar value versus a strikeout-prone SK Wyverns lineup (18.9-percent K rate) that barely averages over four R/G. The sample size on Lee is limited to this point but he has thrown 86-plus pitches in each of his last two outings including a career-high 100-pitches on Jun. 2. Lee is just 18-years old, and his control has been a bit shaky (9.7-percent BB rate), which is not a perfect fit versus a patient Wyverns lineup (10.1-percent BB rate). Still, Lee is basically free and listed as a -140 home favorite with arguably the league’s best defense behind him. Lee does not have to do much to pay off at the price point and his salary relief allows fantasy owners to load up on bats. Hell, a Noh/Lee lineup in tournaments is not a farfetched thought, as Jokisch costs a ton for a player with limited K appeal.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Brooks’ (KIA) price is now approaching $9,000 on DK and just in time to take on a Wiz squad getting one of their superstars back: Baek Ho Kang (KTW). Their lineup is a lot more dangerous with Kang but Brooks is an upper-echelon pitcher in this league and can succeed in any matchup.
For the first time in quite a well, the NC Dinos are not tonight’s top stack, as the powerful Kiwoom Heroes find themselves matched up versus a total gas can: Jung Hyun Baek (SAM). Since he throws left-handed, that means the trio of Ha Seong Kim (KIW), Byung Ho Park (KIW) and Dong Wan Park (KIW) will all own the platoon edge against him. The catcher park has already launched three bombs off southpaws and lefty Jung Hoo Lee (KIW) has hit .400 in the split (10-25) in the early-going as well. Thus far, the Heroes are just one of four teams averaging over one homer per game which bodes well against a pitcher that has yielded a 1.24 HR/9 rate over his last 296.2 IP. The Heroes 6.0-run implied total is tied with the Dinos and Tigers for highest on the slate so this stack is as good as any tonight.
A day after racking up 16 hits, including 13 versus the starter Warwick Saupold (HAN), the Giants find themselves matched up versus the worst starting pitcher of the night. Over the course of Min Woo Kim’s (HAN) last 201 innings, Kim has been blasted for a 5.63 FIP, .366 wOBA, .170 ISO and 1.43 HR/9 rate. Although the Giants are not exactly loaded with power (second fewest homers per game), the top of the lineup is still oozing with potential. Dae Ho Lee (LOT) is the highest-paid player in the league but he also has hit 16-plus homers in each of his past 15 seasons (including two 30-plus homer seasons in his last three). Ah Seop Son (LOT) leads off and is one of the most patient hitters in the league, Chi Hong An (LOT) hits third at an extremely affordable DFS price across the industry and Jun Woo Jeon (LOT) is the best power bat currently on the roster. In other words, this lineup is not devoid of talent, and Yoon Seok Oh (LOT), who hit fifth yesterday, is a great source of salary relief ($2,400 on DK). It is tough to imagine the matchup ever getting much better than this one for the Giants so tonight is the perfect night to target them (if there ever was one).
Kia Tigers/NC Dinos
Instead of just writing up three teams, I am breaking barriers today since both the Tigers and Dinos feature 6.0-run implied totals. Of the two, the Tigers face the worse pitcher on paper, as Min Kim (KTW) has barely struck out more batters than he has walked over his last 40 starts in the KBO. Furthermore, he has allowed more than 1.0 homers per nine innings and his 5.41 FIP since the start of 2018 is second worst of any starting pitcher on the slate. Kim is a bad starting pitcher and the bullpen behind him is worse so it is no wonder opposing teams have scored 13-plus runs twice against the Wiz out of five total Kim starts this year.
As for the Dinos, Raul Alcantara (DOO) may continue to get overrated by the daily fantasy community since he occupies one of the team’s three foreign player spots. Spotted a double-digit run lead his last time out, Alcantara barely lasted 5.0 innings versus the Wiz, as he allowed four-plus runs for the third time in five starts. Alcantara’s 4.35 FIP and sub-20.0-percent K rate tell most of the story but he is still far from the worst starting pitcher on the slate. The allure of the Dinos stack is clearly in the talent of the bats that begin with Sung Bum Na (NCD), Jin Sung Kang (NCD) and a red-hot Aaron Altherr (NCD). Due to their recent success, they should be chalky once again, so weighing a fade is not the worst idea if viewing other stacks as being in similarly favorable smash spots.