Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 11th
This slate locks at 2 AM ET on both sites due to a double header being played today. Let’s play ball!
Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Won Tae Choi, Kiwoom Heroes, $26 FD/$9,300 DK – This pitching slate isn’t great. Choi is hands down the best pitcher in this slate but he doesn’t miss bats (16.6% K rate since 2018) at a high level. Still, he’s allowed a slate low .297 wOBA and has posted a 3.62 ERA/3.61 FIP over the last 325.7 IP. Additionally, Choi owns the second highest implied odds to win (63.9%) as a -205 favorite in a matchup against the Samsung Lions. The Lions are averaging the third lowest runs scored per game (4.7) this season. Choi’s price tag isn’t great on either site given his muted K upside but he’s still a pivotal play given how ugly the position is today.
The conversation for second and third best pitchers in this slate is a difficult one. On one hand, Mike Wright (NCD) is very clearly one of the more talented pitchers today. In fact, you could argue he’s the most talented, particularly from a strikeout perspective, as he’s posted a 22% K rate through six starts this season. Unfortunately for Wright, he has a difficult matchup against a left-handed heavy Doosan Bears’ offense and there’s some big regression coming for him as far as run prevention (2.65 ERA/4.88 FIP) is concerned. As a result, Wright owns an implied total against of five runs. He’s also the most expensive pitcher in this slate, reaching $10,000 on DK, which is a difficult price tag to pay when the upside won’t be very significant in this matchup. If anything, you’re overpaying for a pitcher that very likely ends up with positive pitching points.
Perhaps you rely a bit more on recent performance and current matchup to guide you towards the best pitching values. If that’s the case, Min Ho Lee (LG) has to be taken very seriously. Lee is coming off an impressive 7Ks in 7 IP performance against the Samsung Lions. He’s highly unlikely to carry that sort of K upside throughout the season. However, Lee’s implied odds to win (70%) are the most favorable in this slate as he gets another plus matchup, the SK Wyverns. This season, the Wyverns have averaged 4.1 runs per game, which is the second worst mark in the KBO. Additionally, Lee is just $23 on FD and $7,100 on DK. You could argue that he’s the best pitching value today and as a result needs to be considered across all formats.
The other two pitchers that have to be considered in this slate are Min Woo Lee (KIA) and Jun Won Seo (LOT). Lee packs in more strikeout upside (17.6% K rate) though it’s not significant enough to warrant a lot of attention. The matchup against the KT Wiz isn’t ideal but his price tags are fine relative to the talent level.
Seo doesn’t have any strikeout upside (12.6% K rate over the last 130.7 IP) but the matchup against Hanwha (averaging a league worst 3.2 runs per game this season; they just had a major roster overhaul) is as good as it gets and he’s just $6,500 on DK. This slate is setting up perfectly for a Min Ho Lee and Jun Won Seo pairing on DK.
Stop me if you’ve read this before – the NC Dinos are our top ranked stack today. No, it’s not just because they own a slate high 6.5 implied total. At this point, unless the Dinos are in very tough pitching matchup, they’re going to rank inside our top three overall stacks. Through 31 games this season, the Dinos are averaging 7.1 runs per game. Is that sustainable? Probably not. What’s sustainable is their talent level, and it’s very evident that they’re the most talented team in the KBO and it’s not close. Their acquisition of Aaron Altherr (NCD) is paying off handsomely, as Altherr (8 home runs, 30 RBIs) has quickly established himself as one of the better power hitters in this league. Altherr somehow hits 8th in this lineup, which goes to show just how deep this offense is. Sung Bum Na (NCD) is their top hitter and we view him as the best value of all the high priced hitters in this slate. Na is already up to 10 home runs and his OPS is sitting at over 1.000. The Dinos also have the best hitting catcher in the league, Eui Ji Yang (NCD), and a red hot first baseman, Jin Sung Kang (7 home runs, 1.265 OPS). As usual, we expect the Dinos to be quite popular today.
Ricardo Pinto is in a world of trouble. Through six starts at the KBO, he’s nearly walked (11% BB rate) as many batters as he’s struck out (13.6% K rate). Pinto has done a good job at generating ground balls and keeping the power down but the K rate/walk rate are beyond concerning. And that’s where the LG Twins come in the picture. They currently have the best power hitter in the league, Roberto Ramos (LG), who’s hit 12 home runs already and owns an absurd .506 wOBA. For those keeping score at home, there’s just no way that Ramos can keep THIS pace up. However, given the pitching in this league, there’s no doubt in our minds that he’s going to dominate. He’s just $4,700 on DK and needs to be a core piece of this stack. Another former MLBer, Hyun Soo Kim (LG), is a primary part of this stack as well. Leadoff hitter Chun Woong Lee (LG) can run (five stolen bases thus far) and he’s affordable on both sites. Ramos should draw big ownership in this slate but the other members of this offense shouldn’t be as high owned. The Twins’ implied total is approaching 6.5 runs today.
The Giants own an implied total of six runs against the lowly Hanwha Eagles. Opposing pitcher Min Jae Jang has posted a 5.41 ERA/4.42 FIP over the last 198 IP. Dae Ho Lee (LOT) and Jun Won Jeo (LOT) are two of the first names you’re clicking when creating Giants’ stacks as they’re clearly the best hitters on this team. Both are priced affordably as well. In fact, the most expensive Giant is Jeon, who’s just $4,200 on DK. The Giants are more likely to go under the radar tonight as most of the industry gravitates towards expensive hitting and cheaper pitching.
Honorable mention: KIA Tigers (they make a strong case for third overall ranked stack in this slate, right next to the Lotte Giants; they face a pitcher with a sub 16% K rate).